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Preface

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

By
Ward Edwards ,
Ralph F. Miles Jr.  and
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Edited by
Ward Edwards ,
Ralph F. Miles Jr.  and
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Ward Edwards
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Affiliation:
Consultant in risk and decision analysis
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Affiliation:
Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and of Public Policy and Management, University of Southern California (USC)
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
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Summary

Decision analysis consists of models and tools to improve decision making. It is especially useful when decisions have multiple conflicting objectives and when their consequences are uncertain. The theoretical foundations of decision analysis can be found in the three areas of decision theory: individual decision theory, social choice theory, and game theory. In addition, disciplines including the behavioral sciences, economics, operations research, philosophy of science, and statistics have contributed to the foundations of decision analysis.

Several introductory decision analysis texts have been written since Raiffa's Decision Analysis (1968); including Bell and Schleifer (1995); Brown (2005); Brown, Kahr, and Peterson (1974); Clemen (1996); Keeney and Raiffa (1976); Kirkwood (1997); Skinner (1999); von Winterfeldt and Edwards (1986); Watson and Buede (1987); and Winkler (2003). Nevertheless, none of these books cover all of the recent developments in decision analysis. These developments include advances in risk analysis, the use of Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, analysis with multiple stakeholders, generalizations of the expected utility model, and much more. The purpose of this book is to fill this gap with the present state of the art of decision analysis.

This book is intended for two audiences: (1) students who are taking a second course in decision analysis, following an introductory course using any of the texts listed above; and (2) decision analysts or managers who are already familiar with the subject and wish to know the present state of the art.

Type
Chapter
Information
Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications
 , pp. xi - xvi
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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References

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