Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-5d6d958fb5-gz6rp Total loading time: 0.358 Render date: 2022-11-28T22:49:39.551Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "displayNetworkTab": true, "displayNetworkMapGraph": false, "useSa": true } hasContentIssue true

5 - Regional fleet simulation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 November 2011

Alexander Wokaun
Affiliation:
Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland
Erik Wilhelm
Affiliation:
Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland
Get access

Summary

Introduction

Deep cuts in global GHG emissions are required to keep the average increase in global temperature below 2°C (IPPC, 2007c; Sokolov et al., 2009). A strong need for action concerning road traffic as a main originator of GHG emissions through their almost exclusive use of fossil energy carriers is acknowledged (Ribeiro et al., 2007), as discussed in previous chapters. In this chapter, we analyse which technological drivetrain pathways and deployment strategies are required to meet the long-term, global challenge posed by climate change. We implicitly assume that the required technology change must be governed and managed by concerted decision making of entrepreneurial and political leaders. Many policy studies address the mid-term impact of incremental, energy-efficiency improvements of conventional ICE, or hybrid technologies and biofuels (Bandivadekar et al., 2008b; Hankey and Marshall, 2009; Meyer and Wessely, 2009). However, a longer term view on fleet dynamics addressing not-yet-regulated policy measures is missing from the literature. Also, most of the fleet models do not discuss the impact of preference changes on the diffusion process of alternative drivetrain technologies and the effectiveness of corresponding policy measures (Greene et al., 2007; McCollum and Yang, 2009; Thomas, 2009).

In this chapter, we present simulation experiments that illustrate the impact of vehicle technology purchase preferences. The system dynamics fleet model developed and used, therefore, offers a long-term view for the EU, addressing the question of what kind of drivetrain technologies have the potential to meet the scientifically indicated, GHG emission targets. Illustrative diffusion scenarios and the CO2 impact of competing drivetrain technologies, including advanced ICE, hybrid technologies, and vehicles fuelled with gaseous fuel (i.e. LPG, CNG) as well as near zero-emission vehicles (i.e. renewable HFCV) are presented.

Type
Chapter
Information
Transition to Hydrogen
Pathways Toward Clean Transportation
, pp. 128 - 176
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×