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Under the Trump administration, a transatlantic trade conflict has been escalating step by step. First, it was about tariffs on steel and aluminium, then about retaliation for the French digital tax, which is suspended until the end of the year. Most recently, the US administration threatened the European Union with tariffs on cars and car parts because of Canadian seafood being subject to lower import duties. As simulations with NiGEM show, a further escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict has the potential to slow down economic growth significantly in the countries involved. This is a considerable risk given the fact that the countries have to cope with the enormous negative effects of the pandemic shock. Furthermore, the damage caused by the trade conflict depends on the extent to which the affected countries use fiscal policy to stabilise their economies.
If apathy, risk, and information cannot explain the participation gap in the Muslim world, then what accounts for lower levels of political and economic activity in the region? The alternative theory that is developed here focuses squarely on interpersonal trust. It identifies two key conditions -- interdependence and uncertainty -- that, when met, make cooperation and coordination trust dependent. Different types of interpersonal trust are able to sustain collective action at different scales, with the broadest forms of cooperation and coordination requiring trust that is non-particularized, or not based on direct previous experience with the entrusted. Levels of trust and trustworthiness in the Muslim world are assessed, and the region is found to have high levels of honesty, but significantly less interpersonal trust. In contrast to some existing theories arguing that this distrust is culturally determined and unable to change, I find evidence that low trust expectations can indeed be updated. This speaks to the potential for collective action in the Muslim world, based on the high levels of trustworthiness there, if only individuals can learn to trust one another.
Observable implications of three existing theories of the Islamic advantage -- grievances, faith, information -- are tested using a variety of data sources. Contrary to the expectations of grievance theory, individuals in the Muslim world appear to be more dissatisfied and less apathetic. Moreover, participation rates are lowest among the most aggrieved, much as they are elsewhere in the world. In contrast to what the faith-based theory expects, participation rates are significantly lower among individuals with the strongest religious beliefs. Further, the popularity of Islamic-based political and economic movements does not appear to follow trends in religiosity in the aggregate, neither across space nor across time. Instead, support for these movements appears to come from both the religious and the secular, in Turkey and across the Muslim world. Finally, there is little evidence that voters in Muslim countries are uninformed, generally, or better informed about Islamic-based parties, in particular. The lack of support for the all three existing theories reopens the puzzle of Islamic-based movements yet again.
Katzenstein and Seybert's Protean Power offers a fresh perspective on the concept of power in international relations (IR) theory. Standard IR theory defines power as control power, which exists in the world of calculable risk. But IR must also grapple with protean power, which exists in the world of incalculable uncertainty. In this symposium, scholars representing a variety of theoretical perspectives evaluate the concept of protean power as it stands now and as it should develop in the future.
This paper restates the central point of Protean Power, pushes the analysis forward by engaging each of the commentators, and concludes by underlining the importance of uncertainty and potentialities and mapping some of the areas that need further attention.
The ongoing crisis in mainstream economics has opened the door to recognition of true uncertainty. Economists are increasingly embracing uncertainty and tracing its implications for responsible economic practice and policy design that foregrounds rather than dismisses the limits to knowledge. Protean Power (PP) promotes a similar shift in international relations. PP advances a key distinction between operational and radical uncertainty. We argue that a complementary and perhaps more productive way to theorize the epistemic insufficiency facing agents as they map and implement strategies is to distinguish between ‘reparable’ and ‘irreparable’ ignorance, which leads to ‘Hirschmanian’ pragmatism.
This article draws on Hobbes and existentialist philosophy to contend that anxiety needs to be integrated into international relations (IR) theory as a constitutive condition, and proposes theoretical avenues for doing so. While IR scholars routinely base their assumptions regarding the centrality of fear and self-help behavior on the Hobbesian state of nature, they overlook the Hobbesian emphasis on anxiety as the human condition that gives rise to the state of nature. The first section of the article turns to existentialist philosophy to explicate anxiety's relation to fear, multiple forms, and link to agency. The second section draws on some recent interpretations to outline the role that anxiety plays in Hobbesian thought. Finally, I argue that an ontological security (OS) perspective that is enriched by insights from existentialism provides the most appropriate theoretical venue for integrating anxiety into IR theory and discuss the contributions of this approach to OS studies and IR theory.
To investigate the impact of the uncertainty stemming from products with European conditional marketing authorization (CMA) or authorization in exceptional circumstances (AEC) on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) recommendations.
Products which received CMA/AEC by European Medicines Agency (EMA) up to 1 December 2016 were identified and matched with corresponding NICE decisions issued by August 2017, the status of which was then traced to August 2019. We assessed whether the conversion of CMA to full marketing authorization triggered a review of a NICE decision. The odds of a recommendation carrying a commercial arrangement for products with and without CMA/AEC were calculated.
Fifty-four products were granted CMA/AEC by EMA. NICE conducted thirty evaluations of products with CMA/AEC. Twelve products were recommended by NICE by August 2017 and fourteen by August 2019. All recommendations had an associated commercial arrangement. The odds of carrying a commercial arrangement were higher for products with CMA/AEC compared to those with full authorization. Conversions from conditional to full authorization among products not recommended by NICE did not trigger an appraisal review.
Uncertainty, stemming from the lack of robust clinical data of products authorized with CMA/AEC, has a substantial impact on HTA recommendations, frequently requiring risk mitigation mechanisms such as commercial and data collection arrangements. Further analyses should be conducted to assess whether the benefits of early access strategies outweigh the risks for patients and the healthcare system.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, more patients will require palliative and end-of-life care. In order to ensure goal-concordant-care when possible, clinicians should initiate goals-of-care conversations among our most vulnerable patients and, ideally, among all patients. However, many non-palliative care clinicians face deep uncertainty in planning, conducting, and evaluating such interactions. We believe that specialists within palliative care are aptly positioned to address such uncertainties, and in this article offer a relevant update to a concise framework for clinicians to plan, conduct, and evaluate goals-of-care conversations: the GOOD framework. Once familiar with this framework, palliative care clinicians may use it to educate their non-palliative care colleagues about a timely and critical component of care, now and beyond the COVID-19 era.
When designing complex systems, multiple people contribute to the process of information collection in support of decision making. In this paper, we study information collection in the Issue Resolution Decision Support (IRDS) framework. We assess the difficulties associated with uncertainty in the often scarce data when implementing the framework in a company and map out how the data sources are scattered across the organization. We study the elicitation process and propose to leverage sensitivity analysis to better allocate data collection efforts.
While solar photovoltaics are projected to grow, major financial barriers exist that impede installation. Soft costs (human-driven costs) can account for over half of total project costs and are often simplified in typical models. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's “Cost of Renewable Energy Spreadsheet Tool” to quantify uncertainty of three soft cost inputs and their influence on the output cost of energy using variance-based sensitivity indices. We then suggest how the development process and model can be redesigned to represent the complexities of this socio-technical system.
This paper reviews the literature on risk management practices and methods in product design and development. Based on an expert workshop by the Risk Management Processes and Methods in Design Special Interest Group within the Design Society and literature review, three key areas are discussed: risk identification, assessment, and mitigation. In each area, researchers have described practices that are used in product development organizations, proposed new methods to support risk management processes and decision-making, and generated evidence to evaluate the effectiveness of these activities.
Presented is an approach to support margin allocation and management via a graph-theoretical network of assumptions. In contrast to the document-centric approach, the network captures assumptions dependencies, and enables an algorithmic process supporting margin allocation and management. Ultimately, this methodology is intended to assist decision-makers in managing assumptions and examining their impact on an architecture. Explicitly linking margins to assumptions allows to support mitigating their risk of invalidity. The approach is demonstrated with a conceptual aircraft design example.
This paper argues that under conditions of uncertainty, there is frequently a positive option value to staying alive when compared to the alternative of dying right away. This value can make it prudentially rational for you to stay alive even if it appears highly unlikely that you have a bright future ahead of you. Drawing on the real options approach to investment analysis, the paper explores the conditions under which there is a positive option value to staying alive, and it draws out important implications for the problems of suicide and euthanasia.
This paper aims at providing an account of the Islamic conception of Gharar in contrast to the current Western conceptualisation of risk, using the respective financial legal frameworks of both as the criterion. One of the more decisive stakes of the difference in approach between the Islamic and contemporary Western legal orders today concern the regulation of financial markets; specifically, the definitions of risk and uncertainty – crucial characteristics of modern economies – can be understood as preferentially related to specific features of Islamic law. In the end, according to Knight, money-creation processes are centred on uncertainty. Without uncertainty, there is no profit. This is why, although different at first sight, Islamic finance with its understanding of permissible Gharar and Western finance with its uncertainty-aversion trend have become more resilient, especially since the financial crisis (2007–2010).
This is the first in a series of articles which present a new framework for computing the standard uncertainty in electron excited X-ray microanalysis measurements. This article will discuss the framework and apply it to a handful of simple, but useful, subcomponents of the larger problem. Subsequent articles will handle more complex aspects of the measurement model. The result will be a framework in which sophisticated and practical models of the uncertainty for real-world measurements. It will include many long overlooked contributions like surface roughness and coating thickness. The result provides more than just error bars for our measurements. It also provides a framework for measurement optimization and, ultimately, the development of an expert system to guide both the novice and expert to design more effective measurement protocols.
The evolving COVID-19 pandemic and its likely consequences add to the already substantial psychosocial burden caused by global problems, existential threats and heightened uncertainty, which are increasingly confronting communities worldwide. Here we briefly outline three challenges for clinical psychiatry and research, related to coping with the social epidemiology of negative moods, stress and socially mediated traumatic experiences brought on by these adverse developments.
This paper aims to consider the meaning of the dismal theorem, as presented by Martin Weitzman [(2009) On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Review of Economics and Statistics91, 1–19]. The theorem states that a standard cost–benefit analysis breaks down if there is a possibility of catastrophes occurring. This result has a significant influence on debates regarding the economics of climate change. In this study, we present an intuitive similarity between the dismal theorem and the St. Petersburg paradox using a simple discrete probability distribution.
Clear scientific recommendations based on the best evidence available are essential in making decisions using all areas of applied science, including conservation. Unfortunately, ecological systems are enormously variable at all scales, and this variability drives uncertainty in predictions and recommendations. In this chapter different sources of variability are reviewed. It is crucial that sources of uncertainty are understood and tackled where possible. Ignoring uncertainty potentially leads to overconfident estimates of effectiveness, or biased outcomes if uncertainty is non-randomly distributed. Examples are given, and techniques for dealing with uncertainty are discussed, including new statistical and analytical techniques that can deal with uncertainties resulting from, for example, lack of information or missing data. The value of collating data across multiple sites or studies is also highlighted, and examples given of how this can help overcome the limitations of lack of information.