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This study aim to derive and validate a simple and well-performing risk calculator (RC) for predicting psychosis in individual patients at clinical high risk (CHR).
From the ongoing ShangHai-At-Risk-for-Psychosis (SHARP) program, 417 CHR cases were identified based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms (SIPS), of whom 349 had at least 1-year follow-up assessment. Of these 349 cases, 83 converted to psychosis. Logistic regression was used to build a multivariate model to predict conversion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to test the effectiveness of the SIPS-RC. Second, an independent sample of 100 CHR subjects was recruited based on an identical baseline and follow-up procedures to validate the performance of the SIPS-RC.
Four predictors (each based on a subset of SIPS-based items) were used to construct the SIPS-RC: (1) functional decline; (2) positive symptoms (unusual thoughts, suspiciousness); (3) negative symptoms (social anhedonia, expression of emotion, ideational richness); and (4) general symptoms (dysphoric mood). The SIPS-RC showed moderate discrimination of subsequent transition to psychosis with an AUC of 0.744 (p < 0.001). A risk estimate of 25% or higher had around 75% accuracy for predicting psychosis. The personalized risk generated by the SIPS-RC provided a solid estimate of conversion outcomes in the independent validation sample, with an AUC of 0.804 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.662–0.951].
The SIPS-RC, which is simple and easy to use, can perform in the same manner as the NAPLS-2 RC in the Chinese clinical population. Such a tool may be used by clinicians to counsel appropriately their patients about clinical monitor v. potential treatment options.
The duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) has been widely studied. However, for individuals with attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS), it is unclear whether the duration of untreated prodromal symptoms (DUPrS) also has a negative effect on the progression of psychosis. Our aim was to identify demographic and clinical factors contributing to the DUPrS in a large sample of individuals with APS, and to evaluate the association between DUPrS and the conversion to psychosis.
A sample of 391 individuals with APS, who were identified through a structured interview for prodromal syndromes, were included in this study, of whom a total of 334 patients had completed at least a 1-year clinical follow-up. A total of 57 individuals had converted to psychosis.
The average DUPrS was 4.8 months for the whole sample. Individuals with a longer DUPrS were likely to be men, non-local residents, with abnormal thought symptoms, a higher severity level of negative symptoms, the lower severity level of general symptoms, and lower level of general function before the onset of attenuated positive symptoms. A DUPrS of less than 2 months, or more than 6 months, lowered the risk for conversion to psychosis.
Our data suggested that the association between the DUPrS and outcome in individuals with APS were likely to be different, which is either long or short DUPrS was not related to future psychosis onset. Individuals with APS were more likely to have a group of features associated with a longer DUPrS.
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