To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure firstname.lastname@example.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.
This article describes and measures how the Bank of Amsterdam supplied a successful fiat money in a world of specie by offering the unlimited repo of large coins at a near-zero rate. Our data from 1736 to 1791 finds that such liberal access led to volatile loan levels and that the Bank responded with sterilization by means of open market operations. In this way, the Bank held its money stock at a roughly constant level and helped stabilize its value. Profit was another part of the Bank’s policy framework, and the pursuit of seigniorage eventually compromised stabilization.
Hafting is an important part of lithic technology that can increase our understanding of socioeconomic behavior in the past. In this article, we develop a holistic approach to studying hafting by using the concept of curation within a broader assessment of lithic technological organization in early villages. Early villages were loci of socioeconomic transformation as part of the shift from mobile foraging to more sedentary cultivation lifeways. We suggest that an examination of hafting can provide new insights into how early villagers negotiated technological requirements, economic decision making, and social interactions in these novel contexts. As a case study, we develop a curation index and apply it to an archaeological context of hafted and unhafted pointed tools from the early Neolithic village of Dhra’, Jordan. This curation index allows for a discussion of the technological, economic, and social dimensions of hafting strategies at Dhra’. The presence of multiple hafting traditions within early Neolithic villages of Southwest Asia is evidence of persistent social segmentation despite food storage and ritual practices that emphasized communal integration. Through the lens of lithic technological organization, we demonstrate that hafting and curation patterns can increase our understanding of technological, economic, and social strategies in early villages.
We describe the motivation and design details of the ‘Phase II’ upgrade of the Murchison Widefield Array radio telescope. The expansion doubles to 256 the number of antenna tiles deployed in the array. The new antenna tiles enhance the capabilities of the Murchison Widefield Array in several key science areas. Seventy-two of the new tiles are deployed in a regular configuration near the existing array core. These new tiles enhance the surface brightness sensitivity of the array and will improve the ability of the Murchison Widefield Array to estimate the slope of the Epoch of Reionisation power spectrum by a factor of ∼3.5. The remaining 56 tiles are deployed on long baselines, doubling the maximum baseline of the array and improving the array u, v coverage. The improved imaging capabilities will provide an order of magnitude improvement in the noise floor of Murchison Widefield Array continuum images. The upgrade retains all of the features that have underpinned the Murchison Widefield Array’s success (large field of view, snapshot image quality, and pointing agility) and boosts the scientific potential with enhanced imaging capabilities and by enabling new calibration strategies.
The Astroinformatics Program is funded by the Chilean Economy Ministry’s (FIE Grant FIE-2016-V022, CORFO Grant 16IFI6626) with the mission to identify and initiate investments to foster Chilean Digital Economy, using Astronomy data-centric tools (known as astroinformatics). Over 2017 we worked with communities across sectors identifying opportunities to achieve the program mission, the Data Observatory vision emerged from that work and will guide design activities throughout 2018.
In Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people score poorly on national mainstream indicators of wellbeing, with the lowest outcomes recorded in remote communities. As part of a ‘shared space’ collaboration between remote Aboriginal communities, government and scientists, the holistic Interplay Wellbeing Framework and accompanying survey were designed bringing together Aboriginal priorities of culture, empowerment and community with government priorities of education, employment and health. Quantitative survey data were collected from a cohort of 841 Aboriginal people aged 15–34 years, from four different Aboriginal communities. Aboriginal community researchers designed and administered the survey. Structural equation modelling was used to identify the strongest interrelating pathways within the framework. Optimal pathways from education to employment were explored with the concept of empowerment playing a key role. Here, education was defined by self-reported English literacy and numeracy and empowerment was defined as identity, self-efficacy and resilience. Empowerment had a strong positive impact on education (β = 0.38, p < .001) and strong correlation with employment (β = 0.19, p < .001). Education has a strong direct effect on employment (β = 0.40, p < .001). This suggests that education and employment strategies that foster and build on a sense of empowerment are mostly likely to succeed, providing guidance for policy and programs.
To examine the choices Canadian family medicine residents make for oral anticoagulation (OAC) for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF).
AF increases the risk of strokes. An important consideration in AF management is risk stratification for stroke and prescription of appropriate OAC. Family physicians provide the vast majority of OAC prescriptions.
We administered a survey to residents in multiple Canadian family medicine training programmes. Questions explored the experiences and attitudes towards risk stratification and choices of OAC when presented with standardized clinical scenarios. In each scenario, a novel oral anticoagulant (NOAC) would be the preferred treatment according to the contemporary Canadian and European guidelines.
A total of 247 residents participated in the survey. Most used the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75, diabetes mellitus, stroke or TIA (2 points) (81%) and congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 (2 points) or age 65-74 (1 point), diabetes mellitus, stroke or TIA, vascular disease including peripheral arterial disease, myocardial infarction, or aortic plaque, sex (female) (67%) risk stratification schemes while the preferred bleeding risk stratification scheme was hypertension, abnormal liver or renal function, stroke, bleeding, labile international normalized ratio, elderly (age ≥ 65), drugs or alcohol (84%). In the clinical scenarios, residents generally preferred warfarin in favour of NOACs, independent of training level. Residents ranked the risk of adverse events and the cost to the patient as their most and least important consideration when prescribing OAC, respectively. Therefore in patients with nonvalvular AF, Canadian family medicine residents prefer warfarin in comparison with NOACs despite the latest Canadian and European guideline recommendations. This knowledge gap may be enhanced by multiple factors, including a sometimes magnified fear of adverse events and a rapidly changing landscape in stroke prophylaxis.
A common way to handle non-linearity in complex time series data is to try splitting the data up into a number of simpler segments. Sometimes we have domain knowledge to support this piecewise modelling approach, for example in condition monitoring applications. In such problems, the evolution of some observed data is governed by a number of hidden factors that switch between different modes of operation. In real-world data, e.g. from medicine, robotic control or finance, we might be interested in factors which represent pathologies, mechanical failure modes, or economic conditions respectively. Given just the monitoring data, we are interested in recovering the state of the factors that gave rise to it.
A good model for this type of problem is the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS), which has been discussed in previous chapters. A latent ‘switch’ variable in this type of model selects between different linear-Gaussian state spaces. In this chapter we consider a generalisation, the factorial switching linear dynamical system (FSLDS), where instead of a single switch setting there are multiple discrete factors that collectively determine the dynamics. In practice there may be a very large number of possible factors, and we may only have explicit knowledge of commonly occurring ones.
We illustrate how the FSLDS can be used in the physiological monitoring of premature babies in intensive care. This application is a useful introduction because it has complex observed data, a diverse range of factors affecting the observations, and the challenge of many ‘unknown’ factors.
The early Dutch Republic experienced a monetary problem called incremental debasement, for mints repeatedly reduced the precious metal content of coins by small amounts. Adam Smith termed this the “small-state” problem because small, open economies often made substantial use of foreign coins, so debased foreign mints flowed into ports like Amsterdam. Around 1600, The Dutch Republic was awash in foreign coins and these were widely used as media of exchange. The fragmented nature of minting authority within the Dutch Republic meant that debasement had a domestic component as well. Whether foreign or domestic, a debasement led to uncertainty in the value of payments, creating transaction costs that hampered commerce.
The Dutch authorities attempted to deal with this debasement problem through laws and regulations, but these were often slow and ineffective. It took decades, for example, for the Republic to establish full control over its numerous independent mints. By contrast, laws assigning coin values were enacted early and often, but these did not solve the problem of debasement. While these were intended to simplify the use of coins by giving them a known value (tale) in terms of a unit of account, we argue that these laws, called mint ordinances, had the unintended consequence of making the situation worse. The disconnect between legal and intrinsic value encouraged people to bring old coins with high intrinsic, but low legal value to the mint in order to repay their debts with newly debased coins.
A measure of retouch intensity, the EKCI, was devised based upon function and archaeological context. To arrive at the function of Pre-Pottery Neolithic A el-Khiam points from the Near East, controlled experiments were performed to determine the relative density of the contact material, which could affect use and retouch patterns. It was shown that el-Khiam points were likely used to pierce and scrape soft materials such as leather. The EKCI was then devised, measured, and tested. Experimental replication showed that the EKCI was an accurate measure of retouch intensity, and application of the EKCI to the lithic assemblage at Dhra' reaffirmed the EKCI's utility for analyzing PPNA archaeological assemblages. Although this curation index is effective for el-Khiam points, it may not be applicable to other hafted point types, which highlights the need for independently developed measures of retouch that account for the form, function, and context of the artifacts rather than attempting to generate universal measures of curation.
Archaeological assemblages from the first farming villages in the Southern Levant have produced high-quality and large-quantity lithic data sets that Near Eastern archaeologists rely upon for interpreting the past. This vast resource of prehistoric knowledge has remained relatively untapped as a source of understanding individual decision-making in prehistoric lithic technology, especially from the perspective of artifact life histories and retouch intensity.
Information on jointed goatgrass caryopsis development is currently lacking in published literature. It is hoped that through a better understanding of jointed goatgrass caryopsis ontogeny more effective weed-management strategies will be developed. Greenhouse experiments were initiated in fall 2002 and 2003 and completed the following spring seasons. Jointed goatgrass plants were started from spikelets, vernalized for 8 wk at 4 C, and grown in a greenhouse. Treatments were the number of days after anthesis (DAA) that a spike was allowed to remain on the plant before harvesting and ranged from 2 to 34 DAA, in increments of 1 (2002) or 2 (2003) d. Individual spikes were divided at harvest into three sections: top, middle, and bottom, disarticulated from the rachis, placed into a germinator, and germination recorded each day. Goatgrass spikelets germinated as early as 2 DAA, although spikelets harvested <7 DAA had <3% germination for all spike sections and were extremely variable, especially for the middle and bottom sections. Time to germination was similar for all sections of the spike. Maximum average germination of the top section was 72% compared with 86% for the bottom and middle sections. Our data suggest that factors other than developmental rate (i.e., dormancy) may affect germination in sections of the spike. A second year of the experiment was conducted for validation. Model validation suggested that although trends were similar in both years, variation in germination response might be too great for accurate, predictive model construction. The early germination shown in this research demonstrates that control measures must be implemented earlier than previously prescribed to prevent jointed goatgrass reproduction.
For nearly a decade, N-body simulations have revealed a nearly universal dark matter density profile. This density profile appears to be robust to changes in the overall density of the universe and the underlying power spectrum. Despite its universality, however, the physical origin of this profile has not yet been well understood. Semi-analytic models have suggested that scale lengths in dark matter halos may be determined by the onset of the radial orbit instability. We have tested this theory using N-body simulations of collapsing dark matter halos. The resulting halo structures are prolate in shape, due to the mild aspect of the instability. We find that the radial orbit instability sets a scale length at which the velocity dispersion changes rapidly from isotropic to radially anisotropic. Preliminary analysis suggests that this scale length is proportional to the radius at which the density profile changes shape, as is the case in the semi-analytic models; however, the coefficient of proportionality is different by a factor of ~2. We conclude that the radial orbit instability may be a key physical mechanism responsible for the nearly universal profiles of simulated dark matter halos.