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In this study, we applied a multi-objective calibration approach to select a group of best performing parameter sets for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in the Boulder Creek Watershed, USA. We specifically applied 16 non-dominated parameter sets to simulate hydrologic variables, including streamflow (Q), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture (SM) in two future phases (Phase 1: 2040–2069; Phase 2: 2070–2099). Relative to the historical period, Q and ET increased, and SM decreased. The magnitude of change was greater in Phase 2 than in Phase 1 for both ET (+19.7 per cent) and SM (-5.4 per cent). We found that the model calibration resultant parameter uncertainty could lead to a reversal of the change sign of annual Q during Phase 2. The uncertainty resulting from model calibration was up to 4.3 per cent and 19.6 per cent at the annual and monthly scales, respectively. Seasonally, uncertainty reached the highest levels during the spring snowmelt runoff period between February and May for Q and SM, and during the summer months for ET. These results suggest that the use of a single parameter set may yield substantial bias for hydrological projections, and more efforts should be devoted to constraining the model calibration uncertainty to enable effective water resources decision-making.
Lake Urmia, in the north-west of Iran, used to be the second-largest hypersaline lake around the world. Over the past few decades, unsustainable water resources planning and management as well as climate variability have led to a dramatic shrinkage of the lake. In this chapter, we describe the past and present situation of the lake through an analysis of in-situ and global datasets. Furthermore, we provide a brief review of the literature on the basin and describe the Urmia lake restoration programme (ULRP) measures taken to restore the lake. The precipitation and temperature data from 17 CORDEX models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to project the climatic condition of the basin by the end of the century. The results from CORDEX model simulations under all scenarios suggest changes in total amounts of precipitation are not likely to vary significantly. Conversely, increases in the basin temperature are expected under all scenarios. Therefore, an increase in evaporation from the lake and higher water demands are expected in the future. Consequently, the management of water demand in the basin is key to avoid a potential future deterioration of the current situation.
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