In this paper, we present and evaluate a novel Bayesian regime-switching zero-inflated multilevel Poisson (RS-ZIMLP) regression model for forecasting alcohol use dynamics. The model partitions individuals’ data into two phases, known as regimes, with: (1) a zero-inflation regime that is used to accommodate high instances of zeros (non-drinking) and (2) a multilevel Poisson regression regime in which variations in individuals’ log-transformed average rates of alcohol use are captured by means of an autoregressive process with exogenous predictors and a person-specific intercept. The times at which individuals are in each regime are unknown, but may be estimated from the data. We assume that the regime indicator follows a first-order Markov process as related to exogenous predictors of interest. The forecast performance of the proposed model was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation study and further demonstrated using substance use and spatial covariate data from the Colorado Online Twin Study (CoTwins). Results showed that the proposed model yielded better forecast performance compared to a baseline model which predicted all cases as non-drinking and a reduced ZIMLP model without the RS structure, as indicated by higher AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) scores, and lower mean absolute errors (MAEs) and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). The improvements in forecast performance were even more pronounced when we limited the comparisons to participants who showed at least one instance of transition to drinking.

As an important component of prehistoric subsistence, an understanding of bone-working is essential for interpreting the evolution of early complex societies, yet worked bones are rarely systematically collected in China. Here, the authors apply multiple analytical methods to worked bones from the Longshan site of Pingliangtai, in central China, showing that Neolithic bone-working in this area, with cervid as the main raw material, was mature but localised, household-based and self-sufficient. The introduction of cattle in the Late Neolithic precipitated a shift in bone-working traditions but it was only later, in the Bronze Age, that cattle bones were utilised in a specialised fashion and dedicated bone-working industries emerged in urban centres.

Diffusion of alkali and low-atomic-number elements during the microbeam analysis of some silicates by analytical electron microscopy (AEM) has been known for some time. Our repeated analyses at 300 kV of kaolinite, halloysite, smectite, biotite, muscovite and pyrophyllite, however, showed differential loss (relative to Si) of not only alkali elements (such as K, Na, Mg) and low-atomic-number elements (such as Al) but also higher-atomic-number elements (such as Fe, Ti). For AEM of these phyllosilicates, a Philips EM430/EDAX facility with a tungsten filament was used to provide a current of 0.3 nA in a stationary beam of nominal diameter 90 nm. The loss of Al in kaolin minerals during analysis is particularly severe. Kaolin crystals can be damaged by the electron irradiation over several seconds, making it the most sensitive clay to the electron beam; in general, relative phyllosilicate stabilities are kaolin < smectite < pyrophyllite < mica. A clear dependence of element loss on crystallographic orientation has been observed for layer silicates in our study; a greater element loss occurred when the plane of the specimen foil was perpendicular to the basal planes of the phyllosilicate crystals than when the foil was parallel to the basal planes. Lower beam current, larger beam diameter and thicker specimens all reduce the loss of elements. The initial stage of irradiation produces highest rates of element loss and the rate of loss can be fitted by an exponential decay law. The analyses at low temperature of phyllosilicates showed that element loss remains serious in our analytical conditions. Since the element loss appears to be instrument- and method-dependent, one should use closely related, well-characterized phyllosilicates as compositional standards to calibrate any AEM instrument that is to be used to analyze unknown phyllosilicates, and the standards and unknowns should be analyzed under identical conditions.

The industrialisation of Western food systems has reduced the regular consumption of lacto-fermented vegetables (LFV). Consuming LFV may exert health benefits through the alteration of the gut microbiome, but the mechanisms involved remain unclear. To start understanding the possible benefits of LFV, we compared faecal microbial diversity and composition, as well as dietary habits between individuals who regularly consume LFV (n = 23) and those who do not (n = 24). We utilised microbial DNA amplicon sequencing (16S rRNA and ITS2) and untargeted metabolomics (LC–MS) to analyse stool samples. Study participants also provided three consecutive days of dietary data. Results show minor effects on microbiome composition; with the enrichment of a few microorganisms potentially associated with vegetable ferments, such as Leuconostoc mesenteroides and Rhodotorula mucilaginosa (P < 0.05), in LFV consumers. However, LFV consumption had greater effects on the faecal metabolome, with higher abundances of butyrate, acetate, and valerate (P < 0.05) and significantly greater metabolome diversity (P < 0.001). Overall, the observations of minor changes in the faecal microbiome and greater effects on the faecal metabolome from LFV consumption warrant further investigations on the health significance of LFV as regular components of the daily diet in humans.

The new mineral tombstoneite (IMA2021-053), (Ca0.5Pb0.5)Pb3Cu2+6Te6+2O6(Te4+O3)6(Se4+O3)2(SO4)2⋅3H2O, occurs at the Grand Central mine in the Tombstone district, Cochise County, Arizona, USA, in cavities in quartz matrix in association with jarosite and rodalquilarite. Tombstoneite crystals are green pseudohexagonal tablets, up to 100 μm across and 20 μm thick. The mineral has a pale green streak and adamantine lustre. It is brittle with irregular fracture and a Mohs hardness of ~2½. It has one perfect cleavage on {001}. The calculated density is 5.680 g cm–3. Optically, the mineral is uniaxial (–) and exhibits pleochroism: O = green, E = light yellow green; O > E. The Raman spectrum exhibits bands consistent with Te6+O6, Te4+O3, Se4+O3 and SO4. Electron microprobe analysis provided the empirical formula (Ca0.51Pb0.49)Σ1.00Pb3.00Cu2+5.85Te6+2.00O6(Te4+1.00O3)6(Se4+0.69Te4+0.24S0.07O3)2(S1.00O4)2⋅3H2O. Tombstoneite is trigonal, P321, a = 9.1377(9), c = 12.2797(9) Å, V = 887.96(18) Å3 and Z = 1. The structure of tombstoneite (R1 = 0.0432 for 1205 I > 2σI) contains thick heteropolyhedral layers comprising Te6+O6 octahedra, Jahn-Teller distorted Cu2+O5 pyramids, Te4+O3 pyramids and Se4+O3 pyramids. Pb2+ cations without stereoactive 6s2 lone-pair electrons are hosted in pockets in the heteropolyhedral layer. Pb2+ cations, possibly with stereoactive 6s2 lone-pair electrons, are located in the interlayer region along with SO4 tetrahedra and H2O groups. Within the heteropolyhedral layer, the Te6+O6 octahedra and the Te4+O3 pyramids form finite Te6+O3(Te4+O3)3 clusters with a pinwheel-like configuration. This is the first known finite complex including both Te4+ and Te6+ polyhedra in any natural or synthetic tellurium oxysalt structure.

We consider the use of sparsity-promoting norms in obtaining localised forcing structures from resolvent analysis. By formulating the optimal forcing problem as a Riemannian optimisation, we are able to maximise cost functionals whilst maintaining a unit-energy forcing. Taking the cost functional to be the energy norm of the driven response results in a traditional resolvent analysis and is solvable by a singular value decomposition (SVD). By modifying this cost functional with the $L_1$-norm, we target spatially localised structures that provide an efficient amplification in the energy of the response. We showcase this optimisation procedure on two flows: plane Poiseuille flow at Reynolds number $Re=4000$, and turbulent flow past a NACA 0012 aerofoil at $Re=23\,000$. In both cases, the optimisation yields sparse forcing modes that maintain important features of the structures arising from an SVD in order to provide a gain in energy. These results showcase the benefits of utilising a sparsity-promoting resolvent formulation to uncover sparse forcings, specifically with a view to using them as actuation locations for flow control.

The new mineral flaggite (IMA2021-044), Pb4Cu2+4Te6+2(SO4)2O11(OH)2(H2O), occurs at the Grand Central mine in the Tombstone district, Cochise County, Arizona, USA, in cavities in quartz matrix in association with alunite, backite, cerussite, jarosite and rodalquilarite. Flaggite crystals are lime-green to yellow-green tablets, up to 0.5 mm across. The mineral has a very pale green streak and adamantine lustre. It is brittle with irregular fracture and a Mohs hardness of ~3. It has one excellent cleavage on {010}. The calculated density is 6.137 g cm–3. Optically, the mineral is biaxial (+) with α = 1.95(1), β = 1.96(1), γ = 2.00(1) (white light); 2V = 54(2)°; pleochroism: X green, Y light yellow green, Z nearly colourless; X > Y > Z. The Raman spectrum exhibits bands consistent with TeO6 and SO4. Electron microprobe analysis provided the empirical formula Pb3.88Cu2+3.89Te6+2.08(SO4)2O11(OH)2(H2O) (–0.03 H). Flaggite is triclinic, P1, a = 9.5610(2), b = 9.9755(2), c = 10.4449(3) Å, α = 74.884(1), β = 89.994(1), γ = 78.219(1)°, V = 939.97(4) Å3 and Z = 2. The structure of flaggite (R1 = 0.0342 for 5936 I > 2σI) contains hexagonal-close-packed, stair-step-like layers comprising TeO6 octahedra and Jahn-Teller distorted CuO6 octahedra. The layers in the structure of flaggite are very similar to those in bairdite, timroseite and paratimroseite.

Dendoraite-(NH4), (NH4)2NaAl(C2O4)(PO3OH)2(H2O)2, is a new mineral species from the Rowley mine, Maricopa County, Arizona, USA. It occurs in an unusual bat-guano-related, post-mining assemblage of phases that include a variety of vanadates, phosphates, oxalates and chlorides, some containing NH4+. Other secondary minerals found in association with dendoraite-(NH4) are antipinite, fluorite, mimetite, mottramite, relianceite-(K), rowleyite, salammoniac, struvite, vanadinite, willemite, wulfenite and at least one other new mineral. Crystals of dendoraite-(NH4) are colourless blades up to ~0.1 mm in length. The streak is white and lustre is vitreous, Mohs hardness is 2½, tenacity is brittle and fracture is splintery. The calculated density is 2.122 g⋅cm–3. Dendoraite-(NH4) is optically biaxial (–) with α = 1.490(5), β = 1.540(5) and γ = 1.541(5) (white light); 2Vcalc = 15.7°; and orientation X = b. Electron microprobe analysis gave the empirical formula [(NH4)1.48K0.52]Σ2.00Na0.96(Al0.96Fe3+0.03)Σ0.99(C2O4)[PO2.97(OH)1.03]2(H2O)2, with the C, N and H contents constrained by the crystal structure. Dendoraite-(NH4) is monoclinic, P21/n, with a = 10.695(6), b = 6.285(4), c = 19.227(12) Å, β = 90.933(10)°, V = 1292(2) Å3, and Z = 4. The structural unit in the crystal structure of dendoraite-(NH4) (R1 = 0.0467 for 1322 Io > 2σI reflections) is a double-strand chain of corner-sharing AlO6 octahedra and PO3OH tetrahedra decorated by additional PO3OH tetrahedra and C2O4 groups. Topologically, this is the same chain found in the structure of thebaite-(NH4). The decorated chains connect to one another through links to NaO7(H2O) polyhedra to form a [Na(H2O)Al(C2O4)(PO3OH)2]2– sheet, which connect to one another through bonds to (NH4)/K and through hydrogen bonds.

Relianceite-(K), K4Mg(V4+O)2(C2O4)(PO3OH)4(H2O)10, is a new mineral species from the Rowley mine, Maricopa County, Arizona, USA. It occurs in an unusual bat-guano-related, post-mining assemblage of phases. Other secondary minerals associated with relianceite-(K) are antipinite, dendoraite-(NH4), fluorite, mimetite, mottramite, rowleyite, salammoniac, struvite, vanadinite, willemite, wulfenite and at least one other new mineral. Crystals of relianceite-(K) are sky blue prisms up to ~0.1 mm in length. The streak is very pale blue and lustre is vitreous, Mohs hardness is 2½, tenacity is brittle and fracture is splintery. The calculated density is 2.111 g⋅cm–3. Relianceite-(K) is optically biaxial (+) with α = 1.528(2), β = 1.529(2), γ = 1.562(2) (white light); 2Vmeas = 22(1)°; orientation Z = b; pleochroism: X = colourless, Y = pale blue, Z = pale blue; X < Y ≈ Z. Electron microprobe analysis gave the empirical formula [K2.21(NH4)1.79]Σ4.00Mg0.96(V4+0.95O)2(C2O4)[P1.03O3.03(OH)0.97]4(H2O)10, with the C, N and H contents constrained by the crystal structure. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the presence of NH4 and C2O4. Relianceite-(K) is monoclinic, Pc, with a = 12.404 (7) Å, b = 9.014 (6), c = 13.260 (8) Å, β = 100.803(10)°, V = 1456 (2) Å3 and Z = 2. The structural unit in the crystal structure of relianceite-(K) (R1 = 0.0540 for 3751 Io > 2σI reflections) is a (V4+O)2(C2O4)(PO3OH)4 chain in which VO6 octahedra are bridged by an oxalate group to form [V2C2O12] dimers, PO3OH tetrahedra form a double bridge between the VO6 octahedra of the dimers, and additional PO3OH tetrahedra decorate the chain. Topologically, this is the same chain found in the structure of davidbrownite-(NH4). The MgO(H2O)5 octahedron can be considered a distant decoration on the chain. The chains are linked to each other through an extensive system of K/NH4–O bonds and hydrogen bonds.