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Friedrich Hayek’s business cycle theory withered throughout the 1930s as he admitted that its underlying model of Böhm-Bawerkian roundaboutness was incomplete and inadequate. In 1934, Hayek started a two-volume book on capital theory, completing only one volume in 1941. Curiously, Hayek ( 2009) cites John Hicks’s (1939) Value and Capital but not the financial measure of roundaboutness that Hicks suggested as a substitute for Böhm-Bawerkian roundaboutness. In 1967, in “The Hayek Story,” Hicks criticized the inexplicable lags. Hayek maintained his view that consumption was sticky and responded to Hicks with a mound-of-honey analogy. Nevertheless, Hayek maintained that his business cycle theory was fundamentally correct and continued to hope that others might someday discover a capital structure theory to undergird it. Toward fulfilling Hayek’s hope, we suggest augmenting the canonical stages of production with a sequestered-capital stage where products are invented, productized, and inventoried prior to launch, uncoordinated by observable prices.
Debate about the nature of climate and the magnitude of ecological change across Australia during the last glacial maximum (LGM; 26.5–19 ka) persists despite considerable research into the late Pleistocene. This is partly due to a lack of detailed paleoenvironmental records and reliable chronological frameworks. Geochemical and geochronological analyses of a 60 ka sedimentary record from Brown Lake, subtropical Queensland, are presented and considered in the context of climate-controlled environmental change. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of dune crests adjacent to prominent wetlands across North Stradbroke Island (Minjerribah) returned a mean age of 119.9 ± 10.6 ka; indicating relative dune stability soon after formation in Marine Isotope Stage 5. Synthesis of wetland sediment geochemistry across the island was used to identify dust accumulation and applied as an aridification proxy over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. A positive trend of dust deposition from ca. 50 ka was found with highest influx occurring leading into the LGM. Complexities of comparing sedimentary records and the need for robust age models are highlighted with local variation influencing the accumulation of exogenic material. An inter-site comparison suggests enhanced moisture stress regionally during the last glaciation and throughout the LGM, returning to a more positive moisture balance ca. 8 ka.
To evaluate age-related differences in the independent/combined association of added sugar intake from soda and body adiposity with hyperuricemia in gender stratified US adults.
Consumption of added sugar from soda was calculated from 24-h dietary interviews and categorized into none, regular, and excessive consumption. Hyperuricemia was defined as serum uric acid levels >7 mg/dL in men and >6 mg/dL in women. Multiple regression models with interaction terms and logistic models adjusted for covariates were conducted under survey-data modules.
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey during 2007-2016.
15,338 adults without gout, failing kidneys, an eGFR<30 or diabetes were selected.
The age stratified prevalence rate of hyperuricemia was 18.8-20.4% in males and 6.8-17.3% in females. Hyperuricemia prevalence of approximately 50% was observed in young and middle age males who consumed excessive added sugar from soda. Excessive added sugar intake was observed to be associated with a 1.5- to 2.0- fold and 2.0- to 2.3- fold increased risk of the probability of hyperuricemia in young and middle age males and middle age females, respectively. Study participants, regardless of age or gender, who were obese and consumed excessive added sugar from soda had the highest risk of having hyperuricemia.
Our study revealed that the association between hyperuricemia and consumption of excessive added sugar from soda may vary by age and gender. Obese adults who consumed excessive added sugar from soda had the highest risk of hyperuricemia, a finding that was found across all age-specific groups for both genders.
Benzodiazepine (BZD) prescription rates have increased over the past decade in the United States. Available literature indicates that sociodemographic factors may influence diagnostic patterns and/or prescription behaviour. Herein, the aim of this study is to determine whether the gender of the prescriber and/or patient influences BZD prescription.
Cross-sectional study using data from the Florida Medicaid Managed Medical Assistance Program from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018. Eligible recipients ages 18 to 64, inclusive, enrolled in the Florida Medicaid plan for at least 1 day, and were dually eligible. Recipients either had a serious mental illness (SMI), or non-SMI and anxiety.
Total 125 463 cases were identified (i.e., received BZD or non-BZD prescription). Main effect of patient and prescriber gender was significant F(1, 125 459) = 0.105, P = 0 .745, partial η2 < 0.001. Relative risk (RR) of male prescribers prescribing a BZD compared to female prescribers was 1.540, 95% confidence intervals (CI) [1.513, 1.567], whereas the RR of male patients being prescribed a BZD compared to female patients was 1.16, 95% CI [1.14, 1.18]. Main effects of patient and prescriber gender were statistically significant F(1, 125 459) = 188.232, P < 0.001, partial η2 = 0.001 and F(1, 125 459) = 349.704, P < 0.001, partial η2 = 0.013, respectively.
Male prescribers are more likely to prescribe BZDs, and male patients are more likely to receive BZDs. Further studies are required to characterize factors that influence this gender-by-gender interaction.
Adolescent females are at elevated risk for the development of depression. In this study, we addressed two questions: Are pubertal hormones associated with adolescent mental health? Might this association depend on pubertal development? We tested the hypothesis that estradiol, which has been associated with adolescent social sensitivity, might interact with pubertal stage to predict depression risk at three time points in ninth and tenth grade. Hormones and pubertal development were measured ninth-grade females. Linear regression analyses were used to predict fall ninth-grade (N = 79), spring ninth-grade (N = 76), and spring tenth-grade (N = 67) Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) scores. The hypothesized model was not statistically significant, but exploratory analyses revealed that two- and three-way interactions incorporating estradiol, puberty (stage and perceived onset), and cortisol predicted current and future CDI scores. Our exploratory model did not predict changes in CDI but did account for future (spring of ninth grade) CDI scores. Specifically, estradiol was positively correlated with fall and spring ninth-grade depressive symptoms in participants with high cortisol who also reported earlier stages and later perceived onset of pubertal development. These findings suggest that hormones associated with sensitivity to the social environment deserve consideration in models of adolescent depression risk.
Widespread testing for severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is necessary to curb the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but testing is undermined when the only option is a nasopharyngeal swab. Self-collected swab techniques can overcome many of the disadvantages of a nasopharyngeal swab, but they require evaluation.
Three self-collected non-nasopharyngeal swab techniques (saline gargle, oral swab and combined oral-anterior nasal swab) were compared to a nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 detection at multiple COVID-19 assessment centers in Toronto, Canada. The performance characteristics of each test were assessed.
The adjusted sensitivity of the saline gargle was 0.90 (95% CI 0.86-0.94), the oral swab was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.72–0.89) and the combined oral–anterior nasal swab was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77–0.93) compared to a nasopharyngeal swab, which demonstrated a sensitivity of ˜90% when all positive tests were the reference standard. The median cycle threshold values for the SARS-CoV-2 E-gene for concordant and discordant saline gargle specimens were 17 and 31 (P < .001), for the oral swabs these values were 17 and 28 (P < .001), and for oral–anterior nasal swabs these values were 18 and 31 (P = .007).
Self-collected saline gargle and an oral–anterior nasal swab have a similar sensitivity to a nasopharyngeal swab for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. These alternative collection techniques are cheap and can eliminate barriers to testing, particularly in underserved populations.
Seed priming with water (hydropriming or HP) has been shown to be beneficial for seed germination and plant growth. However, there is little information on the effects of seed priming with amino acids and casein hydrolysate (CH) compared with HP, particularly in relation to early post-germinative seedling growth under salinity stress. In this study, Italian ryegrass seeds (Lolium multiflorum L.) were primed with 1 mM of each of the 20 protein amino acids and CH (200 mg l−1) before they were germinated in 0, 60 and 90 mM NaCl in Petri dishes for 4 d in darkness. Germination percentage (GP), radicle length (RL) and peroxidase (POD) activity in the root of 4-d-old Italian ryegrass seedlings were investigated. Generally, when the seeds were germinated in 0, 60 and 90 mM NaCl, there was no significant difference in GP of seeds among various priming treatments, except that a higher GP was observed in seeds of HP treatment compared with the non-primed seeds when incubated in 60 mM NaCl. When incubated in 60 and 90 mM NaCl, seedlings from seeds primed with L-methionine or CH exhibited greater RL (greater protection against salinity stress) and higher root POD activity than those from non-primed and hydro-primed seeds. Under salinity stress, there were higher levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) in the root of 4-d-old Italian ryegrass seedlings, a marker of oxidative stress, but seed priming with CH was effective in reducing the salinity-triggered increase in MDA content. These results suggest that priming with L-methionine or CH would be better than HP for the protection of seedling root growth under salinity stress and might be associated with enhanced antioxidative defence against salinity-induced oxidative stress.
This is the first report on the association between trauma exposure and depression from the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA(AURORA) multisite longitudinal study of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) among participants seeking emergency department (ED) treatment in the aftermath of a traumatic life experience.
We focus on participants presenting at EDs after a motor vehicle collision (MVC), which characterizes most AURORA participants, and examine associations of participant socio-demographics and MVC characteristics with 8-week depression as mediated through peritraumatic symptoms and 2-week depression.
Eight-week depression prevalence was relatively high (27.8%) and associated with several MVC characteristics (being passenger v. driver; injuries to other people). Peritraumatic distress was associated with 2-week but not 8-week depression. Most of these associations held when controlling for peritraumatic symptoms and, to a lesser degree, depressive symptoms at 2-weeks post-trauma.
These observations, coupled with substantial variation in the relative strength of the mediating pathways across predictors, raises the possibility of diverse and potentially complex underlying biological and psychological processes that remain to be elucidated in more in-depth analyses of the rich and evolving AURORA database to find new targets for intervention and new tools for risk-based stratification following trauma exposure.
Background: In spring of 2019, 2 positive sputum cases of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the cardiac critical care unit (CCU) were reported to the UFHJ infection prevention (IP) department. The initial 2 cases, detected within 3 days of each other, were followed shortly by a third case. Epidemiological evidence was initially consistent with a hospital-acquired infection (HAI): 2 of the 3 patients roomed next to each other, and all 3 patients were ventilated, 2 of whom shared the same respiratory therapist. However, no other changes in routine or equipment were noted. The samples were cultured and processed using Illumina NGS technology, generating 1–2 million short (ie, 250-bp) reads across the P. aeruginosa genome. As an additional positive control, 8 P. aeruginosa NGS data sets, previously shown to be from a single outbreak in a UK facility, were included. Reads were mapped back to a reference sequence, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between each sample and the reference were extracted. Genetic distances (ie, the number of unshared SNPs) between all UFHJ and UK samples were calculated. Genetic linkage was determined using hierarchical clustering, based on a commonly used threshold of 40 SNPs. All UFHJ patient samples were separated by >18,000 SNPs, indicating genetically distinct samples from separate sources. In contrast, UK samples were separated from each other by <16 SNPs, consistent with genetic linkage and a single outbreak. Furthermore, the UFHJ samples were separated from the UK samples by >17,000 SNPs, indicating a lack of geographical distinction of the UFHJ samples (Fig. 1). These results demonstrated that while the initial epidemiological evidence pointed towards a single HAI, the high-precision and relatively inexpensive (<US$1500) NGS analysis conclusively demonstrated that all 3 CCU P. aeruginosa cases derived from separate origins. The hospital avoided costly and invasive infection prevention interventions in an attempt to track down a single nonexistent source on the CCU, and no further cases were found. This finding supports the conclusion reached from the NGS that this represented a pseudo-outbreak. Furthermore, these genomes serve as an ongoing record of P. aeruginosa infection, providing even higher resolution for future cases. Our study supports the use of NGS technology to develop rational and data-driven strategies. Furthermore, the ability of NGS to discriminate between single-source and multiple-source outbreaks can prevent inaccurate classification and reporting of HAIs, avoiding unnecessary costs and damage to hospital reputations.
Disclosures: Susanna L. Lamers reports salary from BioInfoExperts and contract research for the NIH, the University of California - San Francisco, and UMASS Medical School.
Background: Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are endemic in the Chicago region. We assessed the regional impact of a CRE control intervention targeting high-prevalence facilities; that is, long-term acute-care hospitals (LTACHs) and ventilator-capable skilled nursing facilities (vSNFs). Methods: In July 2017, an academic–public health partnership launched a regional CRE prevention bundle: (1) identifying patient CRE status by querying Illinois’ XDRO registry and periodic point-prevalence surveys reported to public health, (2) cohorting or private rooms with contact precautions for CRE patients, (3) combining hand hygiene adherence, monitoring with general infection control education, and guidance by project coordinators and public health, and (4) daily chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) bathing. Informed by epidemiology and modeling, we targeted LTACHs and vSNFs in a 13-mile radius from the coordinating center. Illinois mandates CRE reporting to the XDRO registry, which can also be manually queried or generate automated alerts to facilitate interfacility communication. The regional intervention promoted increased automation of alerts to hospitals. The prespecified primary outcome was incident clinical CRE culture reported to the XDRO registry in Cook County by month, analyzed by segmented regression modeling. A secondary outcome was colonization prevalence measured by serial point-prevalence surveys for carbapenemase-producing organism colonization in LTACHs and vSNFs. Results: All eligible LTACHs (n = 6) and vSNFs (n = 9) participated in the intervention. One vSNF declined CHG bathing. vSNFs that implemented CHG bathing typically bathed residents 2–3 times per week instead of daily. Overall, there were significant gaps in infection control practices, especially in vSNFs. Also, 75 Illinois hospitals adopted automated alerts (56 during the intervention period). Mean CRE incidence in Cook County decreased from 59.0 cases per month during baseline to 40.6 cases per month during intervention (P < .001). In a segmented regression model, there was an average reduction of 10.56 cases per month during the 24-month intervention period (P = .02) (Fig. 1), and an estimated 253 incident CRE cases were averted. Mean CRE incidence also decreased among the stratum of vSNF/LTACH intervention facilities (P = .03). However, evidence of ongoing CRE transmission, particularly in vSNFs, persisted, and CRE colonization prevalence remained high at intervention facilities (Table 1). Conclusions: A resource-intensive public health regional CRE intervention was implemented that included enhanced interfacility communication and targeted infection prevention. There was a significant decline in incident CRE clinical cases in Cook County, despite high persistent CRE colonization prevalence in intervention facilities. vSNFs, where understaffing or underresourcing were common and lengths of stay range from months to years, had a major prevalence challenge, underscoring the need for aggressive infection control improvements in these facilities.
Funding: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (SHEPheRD Contract No. 200-2011-42037)
Disclosures: M.Y.L. has received research support in the form of contributed product from OpGen and Sage Products (now part of Stryker Corporation), and has received an investigator-initiated grant from CareFusion Foundation (now part of BD).
The principal aim of this study was to optimize the diagnosis of canine neuroangiostrongyliasis (NA). In total, 92 cases were seen between 2010 and 2020. Dogs were aged from 7 weeks to 14 years (median 5 months), with 73/90 (81%) less than 6 months and 1.7 times as many males as females. The disease became more common over the study period. Most cases (86%) were seen between March and July. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was obtained from the cisterna magna in 77 dogs, the lumbar cistern in f5, and both sites in 3. Nucleated cell counts for 84 specimens ranged from 1 to 146 150 cells μL−1 (median 4500). Percentage eosinophils varied from 0 to 98% (median 83%). When both cisternal and lumbar CSF were collected, inflammation was more severe caudally. Seventy-three CSF specimens were subjected to enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing for antibodies against A. cantonensis; 61 (84%) tested positive, titres ranging from <100 to ⩾12 800 (median 1600). Sixty-one CSF specimens were subjected to real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) testing using a new protocol targeting a bioinformatically-informed repetitive genetic target; 53/61 samples (87%) tested positive, CT values ranging from 23.4 to 39.5 (median 30.0). For 57 dogs, it was possible to compare CSF ELISA serology and qPCR. ELISA and qPCR were both positive in 40 dogs, in 5 dogs the ELISA was positive while the qPCR was negative, in 9 dogs the qPCR was positive but the ELISA was negative, while in 3 dogs both the ELISA and qPCR were negative. NA is an emerging infectious disease of dogs in Sydney, Australia.
Porous metals represent a class of materials where the interplay of ligament length, width, node structure, and local geometry/curvature offers a rich parameter space for the study of critical length scales on mechanical behavior. Colloidal crystal templating of three-dimensionally ordered macroporous (3DOM, i.e., inverse opal) tungsten provides a unique structure to investigate the mechanical behavior at small length scales across the brittle–ductile transition. Micropillar compression tests show failure at 50 MPa contact pressure at 30 °C, implying a ligament yield strength of approximately 6.1 GPa for a structure with 5% relative density. In situ SEM frustum indentation tests with in-plane strain maps perpendicular to loading indicate local compressive strains of approximately 2% at failure at 30 °C. Increased sustained contact pressure is observed at 225 °C, although large (20%) nonlocal strains appear at 125 °C. The elevated-temperature mechanical performance is limited by cracks that initiate on planes of greatest shear under the indenter.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) is a risk for World Trade Center-Lung Injury (WTC-LI; defined as developing FEV1<lower limit of normal [LLN]). Metabolic health is a modifiable disease risk factor. We propose to characterize how time-dependent covariates of MetSyn are longitudinally associated with WTC-LI. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: WTC-particulate exposed firefighters, consented, with pre-9/11 FEV1 LLN (N = 5,746). Data assessed from last pre-9/11 till August 1, 2017. Longitudinal MetSyn characteristics were assessed using 3 models: i. A linear mixed effect model to assess the effect size of longitudinal MetSyn and its components on longitudinal FEV1% predicted as an outcome; ii. a time-dependent Cox regression to assess the associations of MetSyn to time of onset of WTC-LI; iii. a novel, partially linear single index regression model with repeatedly measured MetSyn to assess their joint effects and delineate their relative contribution on the longitudinal lung function in the WTC-FDNY cohort. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: In Model I, BMI 30 kg/m2 had the largest effect size compared to ever-smoking, with −2.524 (95%CI: −2.708,−2.340) compared to −1.681(−2.325,−1.038) respectively. Having MetSyn, defined as 3/5 risk factors, had an effect size of −2.319(−2.526,−2.112). In Model II, hazards of triglycerides 150mg/dL were highest at 1.497(1.336, 1.677), followed by BMI 30 kg/m2 at 1.406(1.256, 1.575), and HDL<40mg/dL 1.355(1.176-1.561), compared to ever-smoking (1.201, p = 0.002). Having high exposure to PM by being present in the morning of 9/11 was a significant covariate only in Model II investigating HDL<40mg/dL or triglycerides 150mg/dL. Model III The proposed methods will be applied to our cohort study. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: MetSyn is both a predictor and concurrent marker of WTC-LI. The single index model can not only reduce dimensionality of the covariates, but also provides efficient estimates of the joint MetSyn effects, allowing linear or nonlinear effects. Future studies will investigate dietary intervention as a potential disease-modifying factor. CONFLICT OF INTEREST DESCRIPTION: NA, nothing to disclose.
Test the efficacy and perceived effectiveness of nutrition labels on children’s menus from a full-service chain restaurant in an online study.
Using a between-groups experiment, parents were randomised to view children’s menus displaying one of five children’s nutrition labelling conditions: (i) No Nutrition Information (control); (ii) Calories Only; (iii) Calories + Contextual Statement (CS); (iv) Calories, Sodium + CS; or (v) Calories and Sodium in Traffic Lights + CS. Parents hypothetically ordered up to one entrée, side, beverage and dessert for their child, then rated and ranked all five labelling conditions on the level of perceived effectiveness.
998 parents with a 3–12 year old child.
Parents exposed to menus displaying ‘Calories, Sodium + CS’ selected significantly fewer calories ‘overall’ (entrées + side + dessert + beverage) compared to parents exposed to the control condition (−53·1 calories, P < 0·05). Parents selected ‘entrees’ with significantly fewer calories and lower sodium when exposed to menus with ‘Calories + CS’ (−24·3 calories, P < 0·05); ‘Calories, Sodium + CS’ (−25·4 calories, −56·1 mg sodium, P < 0·05 for both); and ‘Calories and Sodium in Traffic Lights + CS’ (−29·1 calories, −58·6 mg sodium, P < 0·05 for both). Parents exposed to menus with ‘Calories, Sodium + CS’ and ‘Calories and Sodium in Traffic Lights + CS’ were more likely to notice and understand nutrition information compared to other nuntrition labelling conditions. Parents perceived the menu with ‘Calories and Sodium in Traffic Lights + CS’ as most effective (P < 0·05).
Menus disclosing calories, sodium and a contextual statement increased the proportion of parents who noticed and understood nutrition information, and resulted in parents selecting lower calorie and sodium entrées for their children in the hypothetical purchase task.
We continue to investigate the design, synthesis, and characterization of electrically and ionically active conjugated polythiophene copolymers for integrating a variety of biomedical devices with living tissue. This paper will describe some of our most recent results, including the development of several new monomers that can tailor the surface chemistry, adhesion, and biointegration of these materials with neural cells. Our efforts have focused on copolymers of 3,4 ethylenedioxythiophene (EDOT), functionalized variants of EDOT (including EDOT-acid and the trifunctional EPh), and dopamine (DOPA). The resulting PEDOT-based copolymers have electrical, optical, mechanical, and adhesive properties that can be precisely tailored by fine tuning the chemical composition and structure. Here we present results on EDOT-dopamine bifunctional monomers and their corresponding polymers. We discuss the design and synthesis of an EDOT-cholesterol that combines the thiophene with a biological moiety known to exhibit surface-active behaviour. We will also introduce EDOT-aldehyde and EDOT-maleimide monomers and show how they can be used as the starting point for a wide variety of functionalized monomers and polymers.