The primary purpose of this article is to perform a statistical test of the popular contention that interest rate differentials have been important determinants of the relative decline of the Canadian chartered banks in the competition for personal savings deposits. The Report of the Royal Commission on Banking and Finance, in listing the various factors that influence the distribution of savings deposits among depository institutions, stated that, “the rate paid on deposits is also a very important factor in attracting funds. …” The Commission also commented that the fact that the banks have not paid as high rates as their competitors on personal savings deposits “has without question contributed to their relatively slow rate of growth.” In support of these assertions the Commission stated that, “there is evidence suggesting the force of interest rate competition. As an example, market rates and rates paid on such claims as trust and loan company liabilities rose quite sharply in 1959 while the banks' rate held steady as 2¾%. In that year the share of personal savings deposits in the ‘market’ … declined more sharply than in previous years.”
The Commission's evidence, it may be suggested, falls into the post hoc ergo propter hoc category. For example, the fact that the number of trust company outlets increased 5.3 per cent during 1958–59, compared to only 0.2 per cent on the average during the previous six-year period, can just as easily be presented as the reason for the relative increase of trust company savings in 1959.