Hanski's incidence function model is one of the most widely used metapopulation models in ecology. It models the presence/absence of a species at spatially distinct habitat patches as a discrete-time Markov chain whose transition probabilities are determined by the physical landscape. In this analysis, the limiting behaviour of the model is studied as the number of patches increases and the size of the patches decreases. Two different limiting cases are identified depending on whether or not the metapopulation is initially near extinction. Basic properties of the limiting models are derived.

In this work we introduce a stochastic model for the spread of a virus in a cell population where the virus has two ways of spreading: either by allowing its host cell to live and duplicate, or by multiplying in large numbers within the host cell, causing the host cell to burst and thereby let the virus enter new uninfected cells. The model is a kind of interacting Markov branching process. We focus in particular on the probability that the virus population survives and how this depends on a certain parameter λ which quantifies the ‘aggressiveness’ of the virus. Our main goal is to determine the optimal balance between aggressive growth and long-term success. Our analysis shows that the optimal strategy of the virus (in terms of survival) is obtained when the virus has no effect on the host cell's life cycle, corresponding to λ = 0. This is in agreement with experimental data about real viruses.

We construct a wavelet-based almost-sure uniform approximation of fractional Brownian motion (FBM) (Bt(H))_t∈[0,1] of Hurst index H ∈ (0, 1). Our results show that, by Haar wavelets which merely have one vanishing moment, an almost-sure uniform expansion of FBM for H ∈ (0, 1) can be established. The convergence rate of our approximation is derived. We also describe a parallel algorithm that generates sample paths of an FBM efficiently.

We consider two fractional versions of a family of nonnegative integer-valued processes. We prove that their probability mass functions solve fractional Kolmogorov forward equations, and we show the overdispersion of these processes. As particular examples in this family, we can define fractional versions of some processes in the literature as the Pólya-Aeppli process, the Poisson inverse Gaussian process, and the negative binomial process. We also define and study some more general fractional versions with two fractional parameters.

2014 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the Applied Probability Trust (APT), an event celebrated by the present volume. This article sketches the APT's history from its beginnings in 1964 to the present.

In this paper we solve the hedge fund manager's optimization problem in a model that allows for investors to enter and leave the fund over time depending on its performance. The manager's payoff at the end of the year will then depend not just on the terminal value of the fund level, but also on the lowest and the highest value reached over that time. We establish equivalence to an optimal stopping problem for Brownian motion; by approximating this problem with the corresponding optimal stopping problem for a random walk we are led to a simple and efficient numerical scheme to find the solution, which we then illustrate with some examples.

We construct a flow of continuous-time and discrete-state branching processes. Some scaling limit theorems for the flow are proved, which lead to the path-valued branching processes and nonlocal branching superprocesses, over the positive half line, studied in Li (2014).

In this paper we discuss the decay properties of Markov branching processes with disasters, including the decay parameter, invariant measures, and quasistationary distributions. After showing that the corresponding q-matrix Q is always regular and, thus, that the Feller minimal Q-process is honest, we obtain the exact value of the decay parameter λC. We show that the decay parameter can be easily expressed explicitly. We further show that the Markov branching process with disaster is always λC-positive. The invariant vectors, the invariant measures, and the quasidistributions are given explicitly.

We study the relations between the tail order of copulas and hidden regular variation (HRV) on subcones generated by order statistics. Multivariate regular variation (MRV) and HRV deal with extremal dependence of random vectors with Pareto-like univariate margins. Alternatively, if one uses a copula to model the dependence structure of a random vector then the upper exponent and tail order functions can be used to capture the extremal dependence structure. After defining upper exponent functions on a series of subcones, we establish the relation between the tail order of a copula and the tail indexes for MRV and HRV. We show that upper exponent functions of a copula and intensity measures of MRV/HRV can be represented by each other, and the upper exponent function on subcones can be expressed by a Pickands-type integral representation. Finally, a mixture model is given with the mixing random vector leading to the finite-directional measure in a product-measure representation of HRV intensity measures.

We consider a model for a one-sided limit order book proposed by Lakner, Reed and Stoikov (2013). We show that it can be coupled with a branching random walk and use this coupling to answer a nontrivial question about the long-term behavior of the price. The coupling relies on a classical idea of enriching the state space by artificially creating a filiation, in this context between orders of the book, which we believe has the potential of being useful for a broader class of models.

This paper is an edited version of a talk given in Sheffield as part of the celebration of fifty years of the Applied Probability Trust and its journals. I sought to sketch the background to the Trust's formation in the development of different applications of probability during the previous century, and to draw lessons for the future of the discipline and therefore of its journals.

We consider a continuum percolation model consisting of two types of nodes, namely legitimate and eavesdropper nodes, distributed according to independent Poisson point processes in R2 of intensities λ and λE, respectively. A directed edge from one legitimate node A to another legitimate node B exists provided that the strength of the signal transmitted from node A that is received at node B is higher than that received at any eavesdropper node. The strength of the signal received at a node from a legitimate node depends not only on the distance between these nodes, but also on the location of the other legitimate nodes and an interference suppression parameter γ. The graph is said to percolate when there exists an infinitely connected component. We show that for any finite intensity λE of eavesdropper nodes, there exists a critical intensity λc < ∞ such that for all λ > λc the graph percolates for sufficiently small values of the interference parameter. Furthermore, for the subcritical regime, we show that there exists a λ0 such that for all λ < λ0 ≤ λc a suitable graph defined over eavesdropper node connections percolates that precludes percolation in the graphs formed by the legitimate nodes.

We pose an optimal control problem arising in a perhaps new model for retirement investing. Given a control function f and our current net worth X(t) for any t, we invest an amount f(X(t)) in the market. We need a fortune of M ‘superdollars’ to retire and want to retire as early as possible. We model our change in net worth over each infinitesimal time interval by the Itô process dX(t) = (1 + f(X(t)))dt + f(X(t))dW(t). We show how to choose the optimal f = f0 and show that the choice of f0 is optimal among all nonanticipative investment strategies, not just among Markovian ones.

Onwards from the mid-twentieth century, the stochastic filtering problem has caught the attention of thousands of mathematicians, engineers, statisticians, and computer scientists. Its applications span the whole spectrum of human endeavour, including satellite tracking, credit risk estimation, human genome analysis, and speech recognition. Stochastic filtering has engendered a surprising number of mathematical techniques for its treatment and has played an important role in the development of new research areas, including stochastic partial differential equations, stochastic geometry, rough paths theory, and Malliavin calculus. It also spearheaded research in areas of classical mathematics, such as Lie algebras, control theory, and information theory. The aim of this paper is to give a brief historical account of the subject concentrating on the continuous-time framework.

Suppose that a system consists of n independent and identically distributed components and that the life lengths of the n components are Xi, i = 1, …, n. For k ∈ {1, …, n - 1}, let X(k)1, …, X(k)n-k be the residual life lengths of the live components following the kth failure in the system. In this paper we extend various stochastic ordering results presented in Bairamov and Arnold (2008) on the residual life lengths of the live components in an (n - k + 1)-out-of-n system, and also present a new result concerning the multivariate stochastic ordering of live components in the two-sample situation. Finally, we also characterize exponential distributions under a weaker condition than those introduced in Bairamov and Arnold (2008) and show that some special ageing properties of the original residual life lengths get preserved by residual life lengths.

Exact simulation approaches for a class of diffusion bridges have recently been proposed based on rejection sampling techniques. The existing rejection sampling methods may not be practical owing to small acceptance probabilities. In this paper we propose an adaptive approach that improves the existing methods significantly under certain scenarios. The idea of the new method is based on a layered process, which can be simulated from a layered Brownian motion with reweighted layer probabilities. We will show that the new exact simulation method is more efficient than existing methods theoretically and via simulation.

Identifiability of evolutionary tree models has been a recent topic of discussion and some models have been shown to be nonidentifiable. A coalescent-based rooted population tree model, originally proposed by Nielsen et al. (1998), has been used by many authors in the last few years and is a simple tool to accurately model the changes in allele frequencies in the tree. However, the identifiability of this model has never been proven. Here we prove this model to be identifiable by showing that the model parameters can be expressed as functions of the probability distributions of subsamples, assuming that there are at least two (haploid) individuals sampled from each population. This a step toward proving the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator of the population tree based on this model.

We derive the explicit formula for the joint Laplace transform of the Wishart process and its time integral, which extends the original approach of Bru (1991). We compare our methodology with the alternative results given by the variation-of-constants method, the linearization of the matrix Riccati ordinary differential equation, and the Runge-Kutta algorithm. The new formula turns out to be fast and accurate.