Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-vfjqv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T02:04:03.629Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Maladaptation and global indeterminacy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 August 2019

Angelo Antoci
Affiliation:
Department of Economics and Business, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
Luca Gori*
Affiliation:
Department of Law, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Mauro Sodini
Affiliation:
Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Elisa Ticci
Affiliation:
Department of Political and International Sciences, University of Siena, Siena, Italy
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: luca.gori@unipi.it; dr.luca.gori@gmail.com

Abstract

This article analyzes a general equilibrium growth model with overlapping generations and (production-induced) environmental degradation. Individuals react to environmental damages through mitigation or adaptation. In the former case, they reduce production and its environmental impact. In the latter, they do not tackle the causes of the problem but rather its consequences (i.e., the wellbeing loss due to environmental degradation) by increasing defensive expenditures. Despite its simplicity, the model can generate different long-term outcomes: convergence to a stationary state following a unique trajectory or local/global indeterminacy. In the last scenario, initial conditions (history) and individual expectations matter and the model can generate coordination failures and endogenous fluctuations. Results cast doubt on solutions to environmental problems relying on the role of individual behavior change or adaptation.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

When originally published, this article contained an error in the labels for figure 5 a. A correction notice has been published and the error rectified in the PDF and HTML.

References

Abegg, B, Agrawala, S, Crick, F and Montfalcon, A (2007) Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In Shardul, A (ed), Climate Change in the European Alps: Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, France: OECD, pp. 2760.Google Scholar
Adejuwon, J, Azar, C, Baethgen, W, Hope, C, Moss, R, Leary, N, Richels, R and van Ypersele, JP (2001) Overview of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change. In Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 75103.Google Scholar
Antoci, A, Galeotti, M and Russu, P (2011) Poverty trap and global indeterminacy in a growth model with open-access natural resources. Journal of Economic Theory 146, 569591.Google Scholar
Antoci, A, Gori, L and Sodini, M (2016) Nonlinear dynamics and global indeterminacy in an overlapping generations model with environmental resources. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulations 38, 5971.Google Scholar
Arguedas Ortiz, D (2018) Ten simple ways to act on climate change. BBC, 5 November 2018. Available at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181102-what-can-i-do-about-climate-change.Google Scholar
Auffhammer, M and Aroonruengsawat, A (2011) Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California's residential electricity consumption. Climatic Change 109, 191210.Google Scholar
Barnett, J and O'Neill, S (2010) Maladaptation. Global Environmental Change 2, 211213.Google Scholar
Beilin, R, Sysak, T and Hill, S (2012) Farmers and perverse outcomes: the quest for food and energy security, emissions reduction and climate adaptation. Global Environmental Change 22, 463471.Google Scholar
Bella, G, Mattana, P and Venturi, B (2017) Shilnikov chaos in the Lucas model of endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Theory 172, 451477.Google Scholar
Benhabib, J and Eusepi, S (2005) The design of monetary and fiscal policy: a global perspective. Journal of Economic Theory 123, 4073.Google Scholar
Benhabib, J, Nishimura, K and Shigoka, T (2008) Bifurcation and sunspots in the continuous time equilibrium model with capacity utilization. International Journal of Economic Theory 4, 337355.Google Scholar
Berrang-Ford, L, Biesbroek, R, Ford, JD, Lesnikowski, A, Tanabe, A, Wang, FM, Chen, C, Hsu, A, Hellmann, JJ, Pringle, P, Grecequet, M, Amado, J-C, Huq, S, Lwasa, S and Heymann, SJ (2019) Tracking global climate change adaptation among governments. Nature Climate Change 9, 440449.Google Scholar
Brito, P and Venditti, A (2010) Local and global indeterminacy in two-sector models of endogenous growth. Journal of Mathematical Economics 46, 893911.Google Scholar
Caravaggio, A and Sodini, M (2018) Nonlinear dynamics in coevolution of economic and environmental systems. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 4, 117.Google Scholar
Christiano, L and Harrison, S (1999) Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 331.Google Scholar
Coury, T and Wen, Y (2009) Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models. International Journal of Economic Theory 5, 4960.Google Scholar
Davis, LW and Gertler, PJ (2015) Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, 59625967.Google Scholar
Deschênes, O and Greenstone, M (2011) Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3, 152185.Google Scholar
Galor, O and Weil, DN (1996) The gender gap, fertility, and growth. American Economic Review 86, 374387.Google Scholar
Global Environment Facility (2016) When it comes to fighting climate change, citizen action matters. Available at https://www.thegef.org/news/when-it-comes-fighting-climate-change-citizen-action-matters.Google Scholar
Grandmont, JM, Pintus, PA and de Vilder, R (1998) Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles. Journal of Economic Theory 80, 1459.Google Scholar
Green, M (2017) Trump administration swaps ‘climate change’ for ‘resilience’. CNN. 30 September 30 2017. Available at http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/30/politics/resilience-climate-change/index.html.Google Scholar
Hirsch, F (1976) Social Limits to Growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Karp, L and Paul, T (2007) Indeterminacy with environmental and labor dynamics. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 18, 100119.Google Scholar
Korhonen, M, Kangasraasio, S and Svento, R (2019) Do people adapt to climate channge? Evidence from the industrialized countries. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 11, 5471.Google Scholar
Krugman, P (1991) History versus expectations. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 651667.Google Scholar
Lesnikowski, A, Ford, JD, Biesbroek, GR, Berrang-Ford, L and Heymann, J (2016) National-level progress on adaptation. Nature Climate Change 6, 261264.Google Scholar
Mattana, P, Nishimura, K and Shigoka, T (2009) Homoclinic bifurcation and global indeterminacy of equilibrium in a two-sector endogenous growth model. International Journal of Economic Theory 5, 2547.Google Scholar
McCarthy, JJ, Canziani, OF, Leary, NA, Dokken, DJ and White, KS (eds), Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, p. 1032.Google Scholar
Pérez, R and Ruiz, J (2007) Global and local indeterminacy and optimal environmental public policies in an economy with public abatement activities. Economic Modelling 24, 431452.Google Scholar
Pintus, P, Sands, D and de Vilder, R (2000) On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24, 247272.Google Scholar
Pouliotte, J, Smit, B and Westerhoff, L (2009) Adaptation and development: livelihoods and climate change in Subarnabad, Bangladesh. Climate and Development 1, 3146.Google Scholar
Raurich-Puigdevall, X (2000) Global indeterminacy in an endogenous-growth model with public capital. Journal of Economics 71, 255280.Google Scholar
Reichlin, P (1986) Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production. Journal of Economic Theory 40, 89102.Google Scholar
Rogelj, J, Shindell, D, Jiang, K, Fifita, S, Forster, P, Ginzburg, V, Handa, C, Kheshgi, H, Kobayashi, S, Kriegler, E, Mundaca, L, Séférian, R and Vilariño, MV (2018) Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. In Masson-Delmotte, V et al. (eds), Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.Google Scholar
Shogren, JF and Crocker, TD (1991) Cooperative and noncooperative protection against transferable and filterable externalities. Environmental and Resource Economics 1, 195214.Google Scholar
Siciliano, J (2017) White House takes climate change ‘seriously’ with hurricanes. Washington Examiner, 11 September 2017. Available at http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/white-house-takes-climate-change-seriously-with-hurricanes/article/2634045.Google Scholar
Sun, C, Kahn, ME and Zheng, S (2017) Self-protection investment exacerbates air pollution exposure inequality in urban China. Ecological Economics 131, 468474.Google Scholar
Surminski, S (2013) Private-sector adaptation to climate risk. Nature Climate Change 3, 943945.Google Scholar
Taylor, M and Vaughan, A (2018) Overwhelmed by climate change? Here's what you can do. The Guardian, 8 October 2018. Available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/climate-change-what-you-can-do-campaigning-installing-insulation-solar-panels.Google Scholar
UNEP (2019) Frontiers 2018/2019: Emerging Issues of Environmental Concern. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.Google Scholar
Weitzman, ML (2010) What is the ‘damages function’ for global warming – and what difference might it make? Climate Change Economics 1, 5769.Google Scholar
Williamson, K, Satre-Meloy, A, Velasco, K and Green, K (2018) Climate Change Needs Behavior Change: Making the Case For Behavioral Solutions to Reduce Global Warming. Arlington, VA: Rare.Google Scholar