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Use of hypergeometric distribution for estimating adventitious presence of GM traits in small seed lots may be misleading

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 May 2013

Rod A. Herman*
Affiliation:
Dow AgroSciences LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN46268, USA
Kelly R. Robbins
Affiliation:
Dow AgroSciences LLC, 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN46268, USA
*
*Correspondence E-mail: raherman@dow.com

Abstract

Testing for the unintended or adventitious presence (AP) of genetically modified (GM) events in seed lots is a common practice to comply with regulatory requirements and good stewardship practices. A subsample of a seed lot is typically tested for AP levels, and then statistical methods are used to estimate the upper level of AP in the remainder of the lot with a given level of confidence. For large seed lots, a binomial distribution is typically assumed, but for seed lots where the tested sample is a substantial proportion of the overall seed lot, a hypergeometric distribution is typically assumed. Due to the destructive nature of AP seed testing, we suggest that this latter method may overestimate confidence of low AP in the remaining seed.

Type
Short Communication
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

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References

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