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Banque Centrale Européenne, relations stratégiques internationales et stabilisation de la dette

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

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Résumé

L’adoption d’une Banque centrale européenne a modifié les relations stratégiques entre les autorités fiscale et monétaire et pose sous un jour nouveau la question de la stabilisation de la dette. Pour étudier ce problème, Van Aarle et al (1997) ont proposé un modèle à deux pays avec une Banque centrale commune. Ils obtiennent un résultat de neutralité: le changement institutionnel ne modifie pas l’évolution de la dette si les autorités peuvent s’engager. Cette note réexamine ce résultat de neutralité en s’écartant des auteurs précédents sur trois points: i) des externalités entre les pays sont introduites en raison de l’élasticité du taux d’intérêt mondial aux variables macroéconomiques; ii) le modèle comporte n pays dont certains restent en dehors de l’Union monétaire; iii) les résultats sont analytiques (la plupart des résultats de Van Aarle et al (1997) étaient numériques). Dans ce nouveau contexte le résultat de neutralité s’effrondre: i) une asymétrie apparaît entre les pays; ii) les pays de l’Union améliorent leur bien-être de long terme; iii) en dehors de l’Union les pays peuvent voir leur bien-être s’améliorer ou se dégrader.

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Research Article
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Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2008

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