Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-559fc8cf4f-7x8lp Total loading time: 0.298 Render date: 2021-03-05T17:46:04.064Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "metricsAbstractViews": false, "figures": false, "newCiteModal": false, "newCitedByModal": true }

A Bimillennial-Length Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Precipitation for the Tavaputs Plateau, Northeastern Utah

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Troy A. Knight
Affiliation:
Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
David M. Meko
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Christopher H. Baisan
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Corresponding
E-mail address:

Abstract

Despite the extensive network of moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies in western North America, relatively few are long enough to document climatic variability before and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) ca. AD 800-1300. We developed a 2300-yr tree-ring chronology extending to 323 BC utilizing live and remnant Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) from the Tavaputs Plateau in northeastern Utah. A resulting regression model accounts for 70% of the variance of precipitation for the AD 1918–2005 calibration period. Extreme wet and dry periods without modern analogues were identified in the reconstruction. The MCA is marked by several prolonged droughts, especially prominent in the mid AD 1100s and late 1200s, and a lack of wet or dry single-year extremes. The frequency of extended droughts is not markedly different, however, than before or after the MCA. A drought in the early AD 500s surpasses in magnitude any other drought during the last 1800 yr. A set of four long high-resolution records suggests this drought decreased in severity toward the south in the western United States. The spatial pattern is consistent with the western dipole of moisture anomaly driven by El Niño and is also similar to the spatial footprint of the AD 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought.

Type
Original Articles
Copyright
University of Washington

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below.

References

Allen, C.D., Breshears, D.D., (1998). Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to a climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95, 1483914842.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bloomfield, P., (2000). Fourier Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction.second editionJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.261.Google Scholar
Breshears, D.D., Cobb, N.S., Rich, P.M., Price, K.P., Allen, C.D., Balice, R.G., Romme, W.H., Kastens, J.H., Floyd, M.L., Belnap, J., Anderson, J.J., Myers, O.B., Meyer, C.W., (2005). Regional vegetational die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 102, 42, 1514415148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, L., Kashgarian, M., Rye, R., Lund, S., Paillet, F., Smoot, J., Kester, C., Mensing, S., Meko, D., Lindström, S., (2002). Holocene multidecadal and multicentennial droughts affecting Northern California and Nevada. Quaternary Science Reviews 21, 659682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benson, L.V., Berry, M.S., Jolie, E.A., Spangler, J.D., Stahle, D.W., Hattori, E.M., (2007). Possible impacts of early 11th, middle 12th, and late 13th century droughts on western Native Americans and the Mississippian Cahokians. Quaternary Science Reviews 26, 336350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, D.P., Comrie, A.C., (2004). A winter ‘dipole’ in the western United States associated with multidecadal ENSO variability. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L09203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carson, E.C., Munroe, J.S., (2005). Tree-ring based streamflow reconstruction for Ashley Creek, northeastern Utah: implications for palaeohydrology of the southern Uinta Mountains. The Holocene 15, 4, 602611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, E.R., (1985). A Time Series Approach to Tree-Ring Standardization . Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., Peters, K., (1981). The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring width series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree-Ring Bulletin 41, 4553.Google Scholar
Cook, E.R., Briffa, K.R., Meko, D.M., Graybill, D.S., Funkhouser, G., (1995). The ‘segment length curse’ in long tree-ring chronology development for paleoclimatic studies. The Holocene 5, 2, 229237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, E.R., Woodhouse, C.A., Eakin, C.M., Meko, D.M., Stahle, D.W., (2004). Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306, 10151018.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Cane, M.A., Stahle, D.W., (2007). North American drought: reconstructions, causes, and consequences. Earth-Science Reviews 81, 91134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, E.R.et al., (2008). North American Summer PDSI Reconstructions. Version 2a. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology . Data Contribution Series # 2008-046. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, (Boulder CO). USA.Google Scholar
Davies, R.B., Harte, D.S., (1987). Tests for the Hurst effect. Biometrika 74, 95102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dean, J.S., Euler, R.C., Gumerman, G.G., Plog, F., Hevly, R.H., Karlstrom, T.N.V., (1985). Human behavior, demography, and the paleoenvironment on the Colorado Plateaus. American Antiquity 50, 3, 537554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deitrich, C.R., Newsam, G.N., (1997). Fast and exact simulation of stationary Gaussian processes through circulant embedding of the covariance matrix. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing 18, 4, 10881107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fritts, H.C., (1976). Tree Rings and Climate. The Blackburn Press, Caldwell, New Jersey.Google Scholar
Fritts, H.C., Guiot, J., Gordon, G.A., (1990). Verification. Cook, E.R., Kairiukstis, L.A. Methods of Dendrochronology, Applications in the Environmental Sciences.Kluwer Academic Publishers, 178185.Google Scholar
Graham, N.E., Hughes, M.K., Ammann, C.M., Cobb, K.C., Hoerling, M.P., Kennett, D.J., Kennett, J.P., Rein, B., Stott, L., Wigand, P.E., Xu, T., (2007). Tropical Pacific – mid latitude teleconnections in medieval times. Climatic Change 83, 241285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, S.T., Jackson, S.T., Betancourt, J.L., (2004). Tree-ring based reconstructions of interannual to decadal precipitation variability for northeastern Utah since 1226 A.D. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40, 940960.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grissino-Mayer, H.D., Dean, J.S., Meko, D.M., Swetnam, T.W., (1996). A 2129-reconstruction of precipitation for northwestern New Mexico. Tree-rings, Environment, and Humanity. Radiocarbon, Tucson.191204.Google Scholar
Gershunov, A. and Barnett, T.P., (1998). Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herweijer, C., Seager, R., Cook, E.R., Emile-Geay, J., (2007). North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data. Journal of Climate 20, 13531376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hidalgo, H.G., Dracup, J.A., (2003). ENSO and PDO effects of hydroclimatic variations of the upper Colorado River Basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4, 523.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holmes, R.L., (1983). Computer assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bulletin 43, 6978.Google Scholar
Hughes, M.K., Brown, P.M., (1992). Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recorded from giant sequoia tree rings. Climate Dynamics 6, 161167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, M.K., Diaz, H.F., (1994). Was there a "Medieval Warm Period", and if so, where and when?. Climatic Change 26, 109142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, M.K., Funkhouser, G., (1998). Extremes of moisture reconstructed from tree-rings. Beniston, M., Innes, J.L. The Impacts of Climate Variability on Forests. Lecture Notes in the Earth Sciences 74, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.99107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, M.K., Graumlich, L.J., (1996). Multimillennial dendroclimatic records from western North America. Bradley, R.S., Jones, P.D., Jouzel, J. Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years.Springer Verlag, Berlin.109124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kloor, K., (2007). The Vanishing Fremont. Science 318, 15401543.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
MacDonald, G.M., Tingstad, A.H., (2007). Recent and multicentennial precipitation variability and drought occurrence in the Uinta Mountains region, Utah.. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 39, 4, 549555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCabe, G.J., Wolock, D.M., (2007). Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L22708.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCabe, G.J., Betancourt, J.L., Hidalgo, H.G., (2007). Associations of decadal to multidecadal sea-surface temperature variability with upper Colorado River flow. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 43, 1, 184192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meko, D.M., Woodhouse, C.A., (2005). Tree-ring footprint of joint hydrologic drought in Sacramento and Upper Colorado river basins, western USA. Journal of Hydrology 308, 196213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meko, D.M., Therrell, M.D., Baisan, C.H., Hughes, M.K., (2001). Sacramento River flow reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37, 4, 10291040.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meko, D.M., Woodhouse, C.A., Baisan, C.A., Knight, T., Lukas, J.L., Hughes, M.K., Salzer, M.W., (2007). Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L10705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Michaelsen, J., (1987). Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 26, 15891600.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, V.L., (1976). The regionalization of climate in the Western United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology 15, 920927.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mock, C.J., (1996). Climatic controls and spatial variations of precipitation in the western United States. Journal of Climate 9, 11111125.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Percival, D.B., Constantine, W.L.B., (2006). Exact simulation of Gaussian time series from nonparametric spectral estimates with application to bootstrapping. Statistics and Computing 16, 1, 2535.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterson, K.L., (1994). A warm and wet little climatic optimum and a cold and dry Little Ice Age in the southern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.. Climatic Change 26, 243269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seager, R., Graham, N., Herweijer, C., Gordon, A.L., Kushnir, Y., Cook, E., (2007). Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate. Quaternary Science Reviews 26, 23222336.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snee, R.D., (1977). Validation of regression models: methods and examples. Technometrics 19, 415428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spangler, J.D., (2000). Radiocarbon dates, acquired wisdom, and the search for temporal order in the Uinta Basin. Madsen, D.B., Metcalf, M.D., Intermountain Archaeology. University of Utah Anthropological Papers No. 122. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, UT.4899.Google Scholar
Stahle, D.W., Fye, F.K., Cook, E.R., Griffin, R.D., (2007). Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since A.D. 1300. Climatic Change 83, 133149.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stine, S., (1994). Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during medieval time. Nature 269, 546549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, M.A., Smiley, T.L., (1968). An Introduction to Tree-Ring Dating. University of Arizona Press, Tucson.Google Scholar
Swetnam, T.W., (1993). Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves. Science 262, 885889.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Taylor, G.H., Daly, C. and Gibson, W.P., (1995). Development of a model for use in estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation. Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, Dallas TX , American Meteorological Society pp.9293.Google Scholar
Timilsena, J., Piechota, T., Tootle, G., Singh, A., (2009). Associations of interdecadal/interannual climate variability and long-term Colorado River Basin streamflow. Journal of Hydrology 365, 289301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wigley, T.M.L., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., (1984). On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 201213.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodhouse, C.A., (2003). A 431-yr reconstruction of western Colorado snowpack from tree-rings. Journal of Climate 16, 15511561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodhouse, C.A., Gray, S.T., Meko, D.M., (2006). Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin. Water Resources Research 42, W05415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Full text views

Full text views reflects PDF downloads, PDFs sent to Google Drive, Dropbox and Kindle and HTML full text views.

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 66 *
View data table for this chart

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 20th January 2017 - 5th March 2021. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Send article to Kindle

To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

A Bimillennial-Length Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Precipitation for the Tavaputs Plateau, Northeastern Utah
Available formats
×

Send article to Dropbox

To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

A Bimillennial-Length Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Precipitation for the Tavaputs Plateau, Northeastern Utah
Available formats
×

Send article to Google Drive

To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

A Bimillennial-Length Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Precipitation for the Tavaputs Plateau, Northeastern Utah
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response


Your details


Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *