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Weather, Elections, Forecasts: After Richardson

  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck (a1) and Mary Stegmaier (a2)

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Bjerknes, Vilhelm. 1904. “Das Problem der Wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanic und der Physik.” Meteorolgische Zeitschrift [English Translation by Y. Mintz, 1954]http://web.gfi.uib.no/Historie/Bjerknes/Bjerknes_M_Z.pdf (accessed August 19, 2013).
Campbell, James E. 2001. “The Referendum That Didn’t Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 34 (1): 3338.
Campbell, James E. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45:610–13.
Coiffier, Jean. 2011. Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2012. The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2001. “Modeling the Future: Lessons from the Gore Forecast.” PS: Political Science & Politics 34 (1): 357.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2011a. “Election Forecasting.” In The Oxford_Handbook of Economic Forecasting, ed. Clements, Michael, and Hendry, David, 655–71. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2011b. “Congressional Election Forecasting: Theory v. Tracking in 2010.” PS: Political Science and Politics 44 (1): 24.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2012. “Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 625–29.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2013. “Proxy Forecasts: A Working Strategy.” PS: Political Science and Politics 46 (1): 3940.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Bélanger, Éric, eds. 2012. “Special Section: Election Forecasting in Neglected Democracies.” International Journal of Forecasting 28 (4).
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1982. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote.” Public Opinion Quarterly 46: 534–37.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1984. “Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models.” Political Behavior 6: 921.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
Linzer, Drew A. 2013. “Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 108 (501): 124–34.
Lorenz, Edward N. 1963. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20 (2): 130–41.
Lutgens, Frederick K., and Tarbuck, Edward J.. 2001. The Atmosphere: An Introduction to Meteorology. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Lynch, Peter. 2006. The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson’s Dream. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Richardson, Lewis Fry. 1960. The Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Wright, Quincy and Lienau, Carl (eds). Pittsburgh, PA: Boxwood Press.
Sigelman, Lee. 1979. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 532–34.
Stegmaier, Mary, and Norpoth, Helmut. 2013. “Election Forecasting.” In Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science, ed. Valelly, Rick. New York: Oxford University Press. http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199756223/obo-9780199756223-0023.xml

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