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The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections

  • James E. Campbell (a1)
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Campbell, James E. 1986. “Forecasting the 1986 Midterm Elections to the House of Representatives.” PS: Political Science & Politics 19 (1): 83–7.
Campbell, James E. 1997. The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections, 2nd edition, Lexington, KY: The University Press of Kentucky, 1997.
Campbell, James E. 2000. The American Campaign: US Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote, College Station: Texas A&M University Press. Second edition published in 2008.
Campbell, James E. 2004. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in 2004: Placing Preference Polls in Context.” PS: Political Science & Politics 37 (4): 763–67.
Campbell, James E. 2009. “The 2008 Campaign and the Forecasts Derailed.” PS: Political Science & Politics 42 (1): 1920.
Campbell, James E. 2010a. “The Exceptional Election of 2008: Performance, Values, and Crisis” Presidential Studies Quarterly 40 (2): 225–46.
Campbell, James E. 2010b. “The Seats in Trouble Forecast of the 2010 Elections to the US House.” PS: Political Science & Politics 43 (4): 627–30.
Campbell, James E. 2012. “Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012: The Trial-Heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models,” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 630–34.
Campbell, James E. 2014a. “Issues in Presidential Election Forecasting: Election Margins, Incumbency, and Model Credibility,” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 301–3.
Campbell, James E. 2014b. “The Seats-in-Trouble Forecast of the 2014 Midterm Congressional Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (4): 779–81.
Campbell, James E., Cherry, Lynna L. and Wink, Kenneth A.. 1992. “The Convention Bump,” American Politics Quarterly 20 (3): 287307.
Campbell, James E. and Wink, Kenneth A.. 1990. “Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote,” American Politics Quarterly 18 (3): 251–69.
Cook, Charlie. 2016. The Cook Political Report, http://www.cookpolitical.com/.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1985. “Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?” PS: Political Science & Politics 18 (1): 5362.
Morin, Rich. 1992. “Pollsters’ ‘nutty’ calculations added up on day that counted: In academia, however, one well-known political crystal ball lies shattered,” The Washington Post, (November 5), p.A37.
Oppenheimer, Bruce I., Stimson, James A., and Waterman, Richard W. 1986. “Interpreting U.S. Congressional Elections: The Exposure Thesis.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 11: 227–47.

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