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Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts

  • James E. Campbell (a1)


This symposium presents seven presidential election forecasting models and their predictions of the popular two-party vote in the 2004 election. The modern age of election forecasting is now into its third decade. Models have been tested quite publicly in the heat of battle—with some doing well, others not quite so well, and still others making way for new models. In this introduction, I provide a brief overview of the models, a summary of this year's forecasts, and some thoughts about how the forecasts should be judged.



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Bartels Larry M., and John Zaller. 2001. “Presidential Vote Models: A Recount.” PS: Political Science & Politics 34 (March): 920.
Brody Richard, and Lee Sigelman. 1983. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension.” Public Opinion Quarterly 47: 325328
Campbell James E., and James C. Garand. 2000. Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Fair Ray C. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 159173.
Lewis-Beck Michael S., and Tom W. Rice. 1984. “Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naive Models.” Political Behavior 6: 921
Rosenstone Steven J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Sigelman Lee. 1979. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 53234

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Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts

  • James E. Campbell (a1)


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