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International Migration and Turnout Bias

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 July 2019

Michael J. Wigginton Open the ORCID record for Michael J. Wigginton [Opens in a new window] ,
Daniel Stockemer  and
Jasmine van Schouwen
Michael J. Wigginton
Affiliation:
University of Ottawa
Daniel Stockemer
Affiliation:
University of Ottawa
Jasmine van Schouwen
Affiliation:
University of Ottawa
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Abstract

This article focuses on two commonly used indicators of turnout, VAP turnout (the number of votes cast as a percentage of the voting-age population) and RV turnout (votes cast as a percentage of the number of registered voters), and discusses possible biases induced by migration flows. Using a global dataset on elections in more than 100 democracies between 1990 and 2012, we tested the potential bias induced by the percentage of resident noncitizens and nationals living abroad on VAP and RV turnout, respectively. Through time-series cross-sectional analysis, we found that the number of resident noncitizens negatively biases VAP turnout, to the extent that a country with 10% noncitizen residents would have turnout underreported by nearly 4 percentage points. In contrast, we found that the number of nationals living abroad does not induce a turnout bias.

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Article
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 53 , Issue 1 , January 2020 , pp. 33 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2019 

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