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ASSESSING THE ACCURACY OF THE 2008 STATE AND DISTRICT FORECAST MODELS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 January 2009

Carl E. Klarner
Carl E. Klarner
Affiliation:
Indiana State University
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Extract

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.

Ninety-nine days before the elections I utilized national- and district- or state-level information to forecast the 2008 U.S. presidential, House, and Senate elections (Klarner 2008). Overall, the presidential model performed very well, while the House and Senate models understated the extent of the Democratic wave.

Type
Forecasting Recap
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 1 , January 2009 , pp. 23 - 25
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2009

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References

Klarner, Carl. 2008. “Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate, and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41 (October): 723–8.Google Scholar
Klarner, Carl E., and Buchanan, Stan. 2006a. “Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the United States Senate.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39 (October): 849–55.Google Scholar
Klarner, Carl E., and Buchanan, Stan. 2006b. “Forecasting the 2006 Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39 (October): 857–61.Google Scholar