Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-tj2md Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T23:49:24.670Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

“Aiming at a Moving Target”: Social Science and the Recent Rebellions in Eastern Europe

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Sidney Tarrow
Sidney Tarrow*
Affiliation:
Cornell University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

One week before the mass demonstrations that led to the collapse of the Czechoslovak Communist regime in November, 1989, a Charter 77 activist, Jan Urban, proposed that the group contest the national elections to be held in June of 1991. Urban's friends laughed at his proposals for being hopelessly Utopian. But a week later, thousands of students filled Wenceslas Square, a general strike was called, and the regime collapsed. The leaders of the future Civic Forum, who had been carefully watching events in Hungary, Poland and the GDR, had little idea that their own country was ripe for revolution.

Charter 77 would not have fared much better had it consulted Western social scientists, because our models for understanding the emergence of new social movements and their spread and outcomes are woefully inadequate. While prediction in social science is always hazardous, our lack of preparation for the recent wave of mobilization in Eastern Europe is particularly glaring, given the vast body of research and theorizing that has developed since the 1960s both in Western Europe and the United States.

Type
Research Article
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 24 , Issue 1 , March 1991 , pp. 12 - 20
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 1991

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alberoni, Francesco. 1984. Movement and Institution. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, Orly and Pencavel, J. H. 1969. “American Trade Union Growth, 1900–1960.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 83: 434–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnes, Samuel, Kaase, Max, et al. 1979. Political Action: Mass Participation in Five Western Democracies. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Browning, Rufus P., Marshall, Dale Rogers and Tabb, David H. 1985. Protest is Not Enough: The Struggle of Blacks and Hispanics for Equality in Urban Politics. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Bunce, Valerie. 1990. “Rising Above the Past: The Struggle for Liberal Democracy in Eastern Europe.” World Policy Journal 7: 395–430.Google Scholar
Bunce, Valerie and Chong, Dennis. 1990. “Rationality and Democracy: Protest Movements in Eastern Europe.” Unpublished APSA paper, San Francisco, CA.Google Scholar
della Porta, Donatella. 1990. Organizzazioni politiche clandestine: Il terrorismo di sinistra in Italia durante gli anni settanta. Bologna: Il Mulino.Google Scholar
DeNardo, James. 1985. Power in Numbers: The Political Strategy of Protest and Rebellion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eisinger, Peter K. 1973. “The Conditions of Protest Behavior in American Cities.” American Political Science Review 67: 11–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fendrich, James M. and Kraus, Ellis S. 1978. “Student Activism and Adult Left-wing Politics: A Causal Model of Political Socialization for Black, White and Japanese Students of the 1960s.” In Kriesberg, Louis, ed., Research in Social Movements I. Greenwich, CT: JAI, pp. 231–57.Google Scholar
Fireman, Bruce, Gamson, W. A., Rytina, S. and Taylor, B. 1978. “Encounters with Unjust Authority.” In Kriesberg, Louis, ed., Research in Social Movements, Conflict and Change. Greenwich, CT: JAI.Google Scholar
Gamson, W. A. 1975 [1990]. The Strategy of Social Protest. Homewood, IL: Dorsey.Google Scholar
Gamson, W. A. 1980. “Understanding the Careers of Challenging Groups: A Commentary on Goldstone.” American Journal of Sociology 85: 1043–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garner, Roberta Ash and Zald, Mayer N. 1985. “The Political Economy of Social Movement Sectors.” In Suttles, Gerald and Zald, Mayer N., eds., The Challenge of Social Control. Norwood: Ablex.Google Scholar
Gitlin, Todd. 1980. The Whole World is Watching. Mass Media in the Making and Unmaking of the New Left. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Goldfield, Michael. 1989. “The Influence of Labor Insurgency and Radical Organization on New Deal Labor Legislation.” American Political Science Review 83: 1257–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstone, Jack A. 1980. “The Weakness of Organization: A New Look at Gamson's The Strategy of Social Protest .” American Journal of Sociology 85: 1017–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granovetter, Mark. 1978. “Threshold Models of Collective Behavior.” American Journal of Sociology 83: 1420–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted R. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted R. and Duvall, Raymond. 1973. “Civil Conflict in the 1960s: A Reciprocal System with Parameter Estimates.” Comparative Political Studies 6: 135–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas. 1976. “Industrial Conflict in Advanced Societies.” American Political Science Review 70: 1033–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirschman, Albert. 1982. Shifting Involvements. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hoffer, Eric. 1966. The True Believer. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Horn, Nancy and Tilly, Charles. 1986. “Catalogs of Contention in Britain, 1758–1834.” Center for the Studies of Social Change Working Paper No. 32. New York: New School for Social Research.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1977. The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. Cultural Change. The Impact of Economic and Sociopolitical Change on Culture and the Impact of Culture on Economics, Society and Politics in Advanced Industrial Society. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Isaac, Larry W. and Griffin, Larry J. 1989. “Ahistoricism in Time-Series Analyses of Historical Processes: Critique, Redirection and Illustrations from U.S. Labor History.” American Sociological Review 54: 873–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jenkins, J. Craig. 1985. The Politics of Insurgency: The Farm Worker Movement in the 1960s. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jenkins, J. Craig and Eckert, Craig M. 1986. “Channeling Black Insurgency: Elite Patronage and Professional Social Movement Organizations in the Development of the Black Movement.” American Sociological Review 51: 812–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jenkins, J. Craig and Perrow, Murray. 1977. “Insurgency of the Powerless. Farm Worker Movements (1946–1972).” American Sociological Review 42: 249–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, Kent M. 1987. “Residues of a Movement: The Aging of the American Protest Generation.” American Political Science Review 81: 367–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keenan, John. 1986. “The Economics of Strikes.” In Ashenfelter, Orley and Lagard, Richard, eds., The Handbook of Labor Economics. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert. 1986. “Political Opportunity Structures and Political Protest: Anti-Nuclear Movements in Four Democracies.” British Journal of Political Science 16: 57–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klandermans, Bert. 1984. “Mobilization and Participation: A Social-Psychological Expansion of Resource Mobilization Theory.” American Sociological Review 48: 583–600.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klandermans, Bert. 1989. “Grievance Interpretation and Success Expectations. The Social Construction of Protest.” Social Behaviour 4: 113–25.Google Scholar
Klandermans, Bert and Tarrow, Sidney. 1988. “Mobilization into Social Movements: Synthesizing European and American Approaches.” In Klandermans, Bert, Kriesi, Hanspeter and Tarrow, Sidney, eds., From Structure to Action: Comparing Social Movement Research Across Cultures. International Social Movement Research 1. Greenwich, CT: JAI, pp. 1–40.Google Scholar
Klandermans, Bert., Kriesi, Hanspeter, and Tarrow, Sidney (eds.). 1988. From Structure to Action: Comparing Social Movement Research Across Cultures. International Social Movement Research 1. Greenwich, CT: JAI.Google Scholar
Kriesi, Hanspeter. 1988. “The Interdependence of Structure and Action: Reflections on the State of the Art.” In Klandermans, Bert, Kriesi, Hanspeter and Tarrow, Sidney, eds., From Structure to Action: Comparing Social Movement Research Across Cultures. International Social Movement Research 1. Greenwich, CT: JAI, pp. 349–68.Google Scholar
Leeds, Anthony and Leeds, Elizabeth. 1976. “Accounting for Behavioral Differences: The Political Systems and the Responses of Squatters in Brazil, Peru and Chile.” In Walton, John and Masotti, Louis, eds., The City in Comparative Perspective. New York: Wiley, pp. 193–248.Google Scholar
Lipsky, Michael. 1968. “Protest as a Political Resource.” American Political Science Review 62: 1144–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipsky, Michael. 1970. Protest in City Politics. Chicago: Rand McNally.Google Scholar
Lowi, Theodore. 1971. The Politics of Disorder. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Marcuse, Herbert. 1966. One-Dimensional Man. Boston: Beacon.Google Scholar
McAdam, Doug. 1982. The Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
McAdam, Doug. 1988. “Micromobilization Contexts and Recruitment to Activism.” In Klandermans, B., Kriesi, H. and Tarrow, S., eds., From Structure to Action: Comparing Social Movement Research Across Cultures. International Yearbook of Social Movement Research 1. Greenwich, Ct: JAI, pp. 125–54.Google Scholar
McCarthy, John D. and Zald, Mayer N. 1973. “The Trend of Social Movements in America: Professionalization and Resource Mobilization.” Morristown: General Learning Press [now found in Zald, and McCarthy, , et al. , Social Movements in an Organizational Society: Collected Essays. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1987, pp. 337–92].Google Scholar
McCarthy, John D. and Zald, Mayer N. 1977. “Resource Mobilization and Social Movements: A Partial Theory.” American Journal of Sociology 82: 1212–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCarthy, John D. and Zald, Mayer N. 1980. “Social Movement Industries: Competition and Conflict among SMOs.” In Kriesberg, Louis, ed., Research in Social Movements, Conflict and Change. Greenwich, CT: JAI.Google Scholar
Muller, Edward N. 1979. Aggressive Political Participation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Neidhardt, Friedhelm and Rucht, Dieter. 1991. “The Analysis of Social Movements: The State of the Art and Some Perspectives for Further Research.” Rucht, In D., ed., Research on Social Movements: The State of the Art in Western Europe and the United States. Frankfurt on Main and Boulder: Campus and West-view.Google Scholar
Oberschall, Anthony. 1978. “The Decline of the 1960s Social Movements.” In Kriesberg, L., ed., Research in Social Movements, Conflict and Change. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, pp. 257–290.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo and Schmitter, Philippe C. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Offe, Claus. 1985. “New Social Movements: Challenging the Boundaries of Institutional Politics.” Social Research 52: 817–68.Google Scholar
Offe, Claus. 1990. “Reflections on the Institutional Self-Transformation of Movement Politics: A Tentative Stage Model.” In Dalton, Russell J. and Kuechler, Manfred, eds., Challenging the Political Order: New Social and Political Movements in Western Democracies. Cambridge: Polity Press, pp. 232–50.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action. New York: Schocken.Google Scholar
Olzak, Susan. 1989. “The Analysis of Events in the Study of Collective Action.” Annual Review of Sociology 15: 119–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olzak, Susan. 1991. Dynamics of Ethnic Competition and Conflict. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Paige, Jeffrey. 1975. Agrarian Revolution, Social Movements and Export Agriculture in the Underdeveloped World. New York: The Free Press.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox and Cloward, Richard A. 1971. Regulating the Poor. The Functions of Public Welfare. New York: Pantheon.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox and Cloward, Richard A. 1977. Poor People's Movements: Why They Succeed, How They Fail. New York: Viking.Google Scholar
Salvati, Michele. 1981. “May 1968 and the Hot Autumn of 1969: The Responses of Two Ruling Classes.” In Berger, Suzanne, ed., Organizing Interests in Western Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sniderman, Paul. 1981. A Question of Loyalty. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Snow, David, and Renford, Robert. 1988. “Ideology, Frame Resonance, and Participant Mobilization.” In Klandermans, Bert, Kriesi, Hanspeter and Tarrow, Sidney, eds., From Structure to Action: Comparing Social Movements across Cultures. International Social Movement Research 1. Greenwich, CT: JAI, pp. 197–218.Google Scholar
Snyder, David and Tilly, Charles. 1972. “Hardship and Collective Violence in France: 1830–1960.” American Sociological Review 37: 520–532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. 1985. “The Crisis of the Late 1960s in Italy and France in the Transition to Mature Capitalism.” In Arrighi, Giovanni, ed., Semiperipheral Development: The Political Economy of Southern Europe. London and Beverly Hills: Sage, pp. 215–42.Google Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. 1989a. Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965–1975. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. 1989b. Struggle, Politics and Reform. Collective Action, Social Movements and Cycles of Protest. Cornell University, Western Societies Paper No. 21. distributed by Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. In preparation. Power in Movement: Collective Action, Social Movements and Revolutions in the Modern World. New York: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1984. “Social Movements and National Politics.” In Bright, Charles and Harding, Susan, eds., State-making and Social Movements: Essays in History and Theory. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 297–317.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1985. Big Structures, Large Processes, Huge Comparisons. New York: Russell Sage.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1990. “Mobilization and Contention in Great Britain, 1754–1834.” Unpublished chapter, The New School for Social Research.Google Scholar
Touraine, Alain. 1971. The May Movement: Revolt and Reform. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Touraine, Alain. et al. 1983. Solidarity: The Analysis of a Social Movement. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Urban, Jan. 1990. “Address in Hannover.” Unpublished speech, May.Google Scholar
Wilson, James Q. 1961. “The Strategy of Protest: Problems of Negro Civic Action.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 5: 291–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zald, Mayer N. and McCarthy, John D., eds. 1987. Social Movements in an Organizational Society: Collected Essays. New Brunswick, NJ and Oxford: Transaction Press.Google Scholar