A conventional forecasting paper would begin with an account of the demographic trends, the likely developments in the economy and therefore disposable income, the social changes with particular reference to household and family size and structure, the trends in food preparation in the factory and the home, eating out habits, the influence of the multiples in the retail sector and the likely impact of political decisions. I shall take much of that as read.

Only one aspect needs to be brought out. This is the effect of changing life-styles, family structure, shopping, cooking and eating habits on consumer requirements. Our industries need to grasp these issues more positively and carry out more product development work and associated marketing activity if not to be totally outsmarted by poultry, fish and non-animal-based convenience foods. The potentials are very great, because the great majority of consumers are still looking for cheap, lean, nutritions tasty meat and convenient products - whatever the technology.

But I suggest that for our industry the biggest imponderables in forecasting and planning are whether there is or will be a significant resistance from consumers to technological advance (both on the farm and in the processing plant) and whether there is or will be a significant rejection of exploitation of animals for food.