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The Epidemiology of Extreme Weather Event Disasters (1969-2018)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 April 2020

Mark E. Keim Open the ORCID record for Mark E. Keim [Opens in a new window]
Mark E. Keim*
Affiliation:
DisasterDoc LLC, Lawrenceville, Georgia USA Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia USA Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard School of Medicine, Boston, MassachusettsUSA
*
Correspondence: Mark E. Keim, MD, MBA, 141 Chantilly Lane, Lawrenceville, Georgia USA30043, E-mail: mark@disasterdoc.org
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Abstract

Introduction:

This manuscript summarizes the global incidence, exposures, mortality, and morbidity associated with extreme weather event (EWE) disasters over the past 50 years (1969-2018).

Methods:

A historical database (1969-2018) was created from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to include all disasters caused by seven EWE hazards (ie, cyclones, droughts, floods, heatwaves, landslides, cold weather, and storms). The annual incidence of EWE hazards and rates of exposure, morbidity, and mortality were calculated. Regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) calculations were performed to evaluate the association between the exposure rate and the hazard incidence rate, as well as the association between morbidity and mortality incidence rates and rates of human exposure and annual EWE incidence.

Results:

From 1969-2018, 10,009 EWE disasters caused 2,037,415 deaths and 3,998,466 cases of disease. A reported 7,350,276,440 persons required immediate assistance. Floods and storms were the most common. Most (89%) of EWE-related disaster mortality was caused by storms, droughts, and floods. Nearly all (96%) of EWE-related disaster morbidity was caused by cold weather, floods, and storms. Regression analysis revealed strong evidence (R2 = 0.88) that the annual incidence of EWE disasters is increasing world-wide, and ANOVA calculations identified an association between human exposure rates and hazard incidence (P value = .01). No significant trends were noted for rates of exposure, morbidity, or mortality.

Conclusions:

The annual incidence of EWEs appears to be increasing. The incidence of EWEs also appears to be associated with rates of human exposure. However, there is insufficient evidence of an associated increase in health risk or human exposures to EWEs over time.

Keywords

climate changedisastersexposuresextreme weather eventshazards
Type
Original Research
Information
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine , Volume 35 , Issue 3 , June 2020 , pp. 267 - 271
Copyright
© World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine 2020

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