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Economic distress and voting: evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 February 2021

Andrew B. Hall ,
Jesse Yoder Open the ORCID record for Jesse Yoder [Opens in a new window]  and
Nishant Karandikar
Andrew B. Hall
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA94305, USA
Jesse Yoder*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Stanford University, 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA94305, USA
Nishant Karandikar
Affiliation:
Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA94305, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: yoderj@stanford.edu
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Abstract

We use nationwide deed-level records on home foreclosures to examine the effects of economic distress on electoral outcomes and individual voter turnout. County-level difference-in-differences estimates show that counties that suffered larger increases in foreclosures did not punish or reward members of the incumbent president's party more than less affected counties. Linking the Ohio voter file to individual foreclosures, difference-in-differences estimates show that individuals whose homes were foreclosed on were less likely to turn out, rather than being mobilized. However, in 2016 counties more exposed to foreclosures supported Trump at substantially higher rates. Taken together, the evidence suggests that the effect of local economic distress on incumbent performance is generally close to zero and only becomes substantial in unusual circumstances.

Keywords

Causal inferenceeconomic votingforeclosures
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , April 2021 , pp. 327 - 344
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association

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https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VYXB4B
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