Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-zzh7m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T21:05:01.078Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Authoritarian media and diversionary threats: lessons from 30 years of Syrian state discourse

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 June 2020

Ala’ Alrababa'h Open the ORCID record for Ala’ Alrababa'h [Opens in a new window]  and
Lisa Blaydes
Ala’ Alrababa'h*
Affiliation:
Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Lisa Blaydes
Affiliation:
Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford, CA, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: alrababah.ala@gmail.com
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Scholars have long argued that leaders manipulate foreign policy, sometimes even initiating wars in order to enhance their domestic political position. But diversionary wars are relatively rare given the high costs of conflict. In this project, we examine data from major Syrian daily newspapers over a 30-year period (1987–2018) to explore how autocratic regimes use diversionary rhetoric. We find that before the 2011 Arab Uprisings, Syria's state-controlled media concentrated on Israel as a security and political threat. Emphasis on Israel as a diversionary threat decreased during peace negotiations between Syria and Israel, probably in a bid to prepare the Syrian public for normalization of bilateral relations. After 2011, scrutiny of Israel—and other long-standing topics of state discourse—was displaced by discussion of foreign plots and conspiracies against the Syrian state. Our analysis illustrates how authoritarian regimes make use of diversionary strategies as well as how political shocks generate discontinuities in authoritarian rhetoric.

Keywords

SyriaAuthoritarian mediaDiversionary warContent analysis
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 9 , Issue 4 , October 2021 , pp. 693 - 708
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Al-Attar, M (2013) "Syrian Revolutionaries Owe Nobody an Apology." Heinrich Boll Stiftung., April 11. https://www.boell.de/en/2013/04/11/syrian-revolutionaries-owe-nobody-apology.Google Scholar
Al-Moualem, W (1997) Fresh light on the Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations: an interview with ambassador Walid Al-Moualem. Journal of Palestine Studies 26(2), 81–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anceschi, L (2014) Regime-building, identity-making and foreign policy: neo-eurasianist rhetoric in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. Nationalities Papers 42(5), 733–749.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Athamneh, W and Sayej, CM (2013) Engaging the authoritarian state: voices of protest in Syria. Journal of Arabic and Islamic Studies 13, 169–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, M (1992) Confronting the Costs of War: Military Power, State and Society in Egypt and Israel. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Baum, M (2002) The constituent foundations of the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon. International Studies Quarterly 46(2), 263–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benoit, K, Munger, K and Spirling, A (2019) Measuring and explaining political sophistication through textual complexity. American Journal of Political Science 63(2), 491–508.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blaydes, L (2018) State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaydes, L and Linzer, DA (2012) Elite competition, religiosity, and anti-Americanism in the Islamic world. American Political Science Review 106(2), 225–243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bush, GHW (1991) After The War: The President; Transcript of President Bush's address on end of the gulf war. New York Times, March 7.Google Scholar
Chiozza, G and Goemans, H (2003) Peace through insecurity: tenure and international conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(4), 443–467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiozza, G and Goemans, H (2004) Avoiding diversionary targets. Journal of Peace Research 41(4), 423–443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clawson, P (1989) Unaffordable ambitions: Syria's military build-up and economic crisis. Washington Institute Policy Papers 17.Google Scholar
Corstange, D and York, E (2018) Sectarian framing in the Syrian civil war. American Journal of Political Science 62(2), 441–455.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, J (1998) Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, and Theories of International Relations. Annual Review of Political Science 1(1), 289–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, T (1989) Baker, in a Middle East blueprint, Asks Israel to reach out to Arabs. New York Times, May 23.Google Scholar
Gabriel, K-D, Nielsen, R and Romney, D (2017) Conspiracy theories in the egyptian state-controlled press. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Gelpi, C (1997) Democratic diversions: governmental structure and the externalization of domestic conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2), 255–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
George, A (2003) Syria: Neither Bread Nor Freedom. London: Zed Books.Google Scholar
Gowa, J (1998) Politics at the Water's edge: parties, voters and the use of force abroad. International Organization 52(2), 307–324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimmer, J (2010) A Bayesian hierarchical topic model for political texts: Measuring expressed agendas in Senate press releases. Political Analysis 18(1), 1–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimmer, J and Stewart, BM (2013) Text as data: the promise and pitfalls of automatic content analysis methods for political texts. Political Analysis 21(3), 267–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinnebusch, R (2001) Syria: Revolution from Above. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Huang, H, Boranbay-Akan, S and Huang, L (2019) Media, protest diffusion, and authoritarian resilience. Political Science Research and Methods 7(1), 23–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ismail, S (2011) The Syrian uprising: imagining and performing the nation. Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism 11(3), 538–549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kanat, K (2014) Diversionary foreign policy in authoritarian states: the use of multiple diversionary strategies by Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War. Journal of Strategic Security 7(1), 16–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kessler, MN (2000) Syria, Israel and the middle east peace process: past success and final challenges. Middle East Policy Council 7(2), 68–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G, Pan, J and Roberts, ME (2013) How censorship in China allows government criticism but silences collective expression. American Political Science Review 107(2), 326–343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G, Pan, J and Roberts, ME (2017) How the Chinese government fabricates social media posts for strategic distraction, not engaged argument. American Political Science Review 111(3), 484–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kisangani, E and Pickering, J (2007) Diverting with benevolent military force: reducing risks and rising above strategic behavior. International Studies Quarterly 51(2), 277–299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, JR (1977) Rallying around the flag: foreign policy events and presidential popularity. Presidential Studies Quarterly 7(4), 252–256.Google Scholar
Leeds, BA and Davis, D (1997) Domestic political vulnerability and international disputes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(6), 814–834.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, J (1989) The diversionary theory of war: a critique. In Handbook of war studies, ed. Midlarsky, M. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 259–288.Google Scholar
Morgan, TC and Bickers, KN (1992) Domestic discontent and the external use of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(1), 25–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, JE (1973) War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Neuman, J (1992) Mubarak agrees to go to Israel, Baker talks peace with Arab leader. USA Today, July 22.Google Scholar
Nielsen, RA (2017) Deadly Clerics: Blocked Ambition and the Paths to Jihad. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nyhan, B and Zeitzoff, T (2018) Conspiracy and misperception belief in the Middle East and North Africa. Journal of Politics 80(4), 1400–1404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Office of the Historian (n.d.) The Madrid Conference. U.S. State Department. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1989-1992/madrid-conferenceGoogle Scholar
Pan, J and Siegel, A (2020) How Saudi crackdowns fail to silence online dissent. American Political Science Review 114(1), 109–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Perlez, J (1999) "Israel and Syria to Reopen Talks, Clinton Reports." New York Times, December 9.Google Scholar
Perlez, J (2000) "Clinton's Effort Fails to Get Syria to Return to Peace Talks." New York Times, March 27.Google Scholar
Perthes, V (1995) The Political Economy of Syria under Assad. London: I.B. Tauris.Google Scholar
Perthes, V (2004) Syria under Bashar al-Asad: Modernisation and the limits of change. London: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Pickering, J and Kisangani, EF (2005) Democracy and diversionary military intervention. International Studies Quarterly 49(1), 23–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, J (2014) Regime vulnerability and the diversionary threat of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(1), 169–196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rabinovich, I (1991) Syria in 1990. Current History 90(552), 29–31.Google Scholar
Roberts, D (1987) The Ba'th and the Creation of Modern Syria. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Roberts, ME, Stewart, BM, Tingley, D, Lucas, C, Leder-Luis, J, Gadarian, SK, Albertson, B and Rand, DG (2014) Structural topic models for open-ended survey responses. American Journal of Political Science 58(4), 1064–1082.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, ME, Stewart, BM and Tingley, D (2019) stm: an R package for structural topic models. Journal of Statistical Software 10(2), 1–40.Google Scholar
Rozenas, A and Stukal, D (2019) How autocrats manipulate economic news: evidence from Russia's state-controlled television. Journal of Politics 81(3), 982–996.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rubin, B (2007) The Truth about Syria. New York: Palgrave-MacMillan.Google Scholar
Saleh, Y-H (2017) The Impossible Revolution: Making Sense of the Syrian Tragedy. Chicago, IL: Haymarket Books.Google Scholar
Scheller, B (2013) The Wisdom of Syria's Waiting Game: Foreign Policy under the Assads. London: Hurst & Co.Google Scholar
Seale, P (2000) The Syria-Israel negotiations: who is telling the truth? Journal of Palestine Studies 29(2), 65–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shad, T, Boucher, S and Reddish, JG (1995) Syrian foreign policy in the post-soviet era. Arab Studies Quarterly 17(1/2), 77–94.Google Scholar
Smith, A (1996) Diversionary foreign policy in democratic systems. International Studies Quarterly 40(1), 133–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sottomano, A (2008) Ideology and Discourse in the Era of Ba'thist Reforms: Towards an Analysis of Authoritarian Governmentality. St Andrews Papers on Modern Syrian Studies. 1(1), 5–32.Google Scholar
Tir, J (2010) Territorial diversion: diversionary theory of war and territorial conflict. Journal of Politics 72(2), 413–425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tir, J and Jasinski, M (2008) Domestic-level diversionary theory of war: targeting ethnic minorities. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(5), 641–664.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wedeen, L (1999) Ambiguities of Domination: Politics, Rhetoric, and Symbols in Contemporary Syria. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Williams, JR and Nick, B (1989) Egypt, Syria restore full diplomatic ties. Los Angeles Times. December 28.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Alrababa'h and Blaydes supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Alrababa'h and Blaydes supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 4.1 MB
Supplementary material: Link

Alrababa'h and Blaydes Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VD7DDR
Link