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Uncertainty and Turnout

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Mitchell S. Sanders
Mitchell S. Sanders*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, 570 Bellamy Building, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306-2230. e-mail: msanders@garnet.acns.fsu.eduWWW:http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/∼msanders
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Abstract

This article develops a model that simultaneously considers individual turnout and vote choice while also accounting for uncertainty about candidates. The theoretical development of this model implies that the effects of uncertainty on turnout vary with the strength of individual preferences. Application of the model to individual choice in the 1996 American presidential election confirms that decreasing uncertainty about the character traits of the candidates decreases the probability of abstention for individuals with strong preferences but increases the probability of abstention for individuals with weak preferences.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 9 , Issue 1 , 2001 , pp. 45 - 57
Copyright
Copyright © 2001 by the Society for Political Methodology 

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