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Monetary Policy, Output Growth and Oil Prices

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Ray Barrell ,
Aurélie Delannoy  and
Dawn Holland
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Extract

As the global recovery strengthens, attention has to focus once again on the price of oil. The sharp increase seen in the last quarter of 2010 has raised serious concerns for the economic outlook. Oil prices have risen significantly since the beginning of 2009, and the rate of increase suddenly accelerated in the last months of 2010. Between September and December 2010 alone, oil prices rose by about $20, to reach $95 per barrel. Figure 1 compares the expected path of the oil price used in our forecast in October 2010 to that in January 2011, based on information from forward markets as well as an evaluation of supply conditions.

Type
The World Economy
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 215 , January 2011 , pp. F37 - F43
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

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