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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Andrew Gurney  and
Ray Barrell
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Extract

In the course of the last 2 years economic performance in the major 7 economies has become less synchronised. In 1988 GNP grew by more than 3.5 per cent in all seven economies, with growth rates either at or close to cyclical highs. However for 1991 we expect negative GNP growth for Canada and the United Kingdom, negligible growth in the United States, growth of around 1.5 per cent in France and Italy, and of over 3 per cent in Germany and Japan. Table 1 shows that GNP growth in the major 7 economies is expected to slow to 1.2 per cent in 1991. Chart 1 highlights the different responses among the major 4 economies.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 137 , August 1991 , pp. 24 - 44
Copyright
Copyright © 1991 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

(1) However it is also misleading to compare growth between individual quarters since the seasonal adjustments applied to west German GNP have exaggerated the first quarter growth in recent years.

Since 1988 expressing German GNP growth between successive quarters at annualised growth rates gives

In both 1989 and 1990 high first quarter growth was followed by low second quarter growth, and this pattern looks likely to be repeated in 1991. There is however insufficient data to quantify the over-estimation of first quarter GNP.