Since the beginning of this year speculation regarding the future of the economy has centred on whether the lowest point of activity in the current recession has yet been reached. Our forecasts in February and May suggested that, while the decline in GDP (average estimate) was arrested round about the first part of this year, no significant change was expected during the rest of 1981 and only a very limited upturn in 1982. Our forecast on this occasion, summarised in tables 1 and 2, suggests that the bottom of the recession in terms of that measure of activity was reached in the first half of this year and that some marginal improvement is to be expected from now on, giving a rise in GDP of ¾ per cent between the fourth quarter of 1980 and the fourth quarter of this year and a further ½ per cent by the fourth quarter of 1982.