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Application of the Monte Carlo Method in the Performance Assessment of a Hypothetical HLW Repository in Salt

  • Alexander Nies (a1)

Abstract

Recent advances in complementing the capabilities of our safety assessment code development allow for an explicit investigation of the consequences of parameter uncertainties by Monte Carlo simulation of the disposal system. The implemented methods aire described and applied to impact assessment of a brine intrusion scenario on a high level waste repository in a salt dome. Results display the strong effect of parameter uncertainties on the analysis results. With help of several sensitivity estimators input parameters are ranked according to their influence on output uncertainty.

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[1] McKay, M.D., Conover, W.J., and Beekman, R.J., Technometrics 21, 239245 (1979).
[2] Iman, R.L., Conover, W.J., Comm. in Statistics B11 (3), 311334 (1982).
[3] Saltelli, A. and Marivoet, J., Report EUR 10851 EN, 1986
[4] Storck, R., Aschenbach, J., Hirsekorn, R.-P., Nies, A., Stelte, N., Joint GSF/EUR report, to be published.
[5] Hirsekorn, R.-P. and Storck, R., in Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management XII (this volume)
[6] Conover, V.J., Practical Nonparametric Statistics, 2nd ed. (J. Wiley, New York, 1980), p. 344
[7] Nies, A., in Uncertainty Analysis for Performance Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposal Systems, Proceedings of an NEA Workshop (OECD, Paris, 1987) pp. 237251

Application of the Monte Carlo Method in the Performance Assessment of a Hypothetical HLW Repository in Salt

  • Alexander Nies (a1)

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