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Geological disposal programme design and prioritization in the face of uncertainty: use of structured evidence support logic techniques

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2018

A. Paulley ,
R. Metcalfe  and
M. Egan
A. Paulley*
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, Chadwick House, Birchwood Park, Warrington WA3 6AE, UK
R. Metcalfe
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, The Hub, 14 Station Road, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire RG9 1AY, UK
M. Egan
Affiliation:
Quintessa Limited, Chadwick House, Birchwood Park, Warrington WA3 6AE, UK
*
*E-mail: alanpaulley@quintessa.org
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Abstract

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Programmes for the geological disposal of radioactive wastes are by nature extremely complex. A structured approach for making and documenting varied kinds of decisions is required to support programme design and implementation. At each programme stage, the decision-making process must be able to identify and justify key priorities for work, to reduce uncertainties.

To support structured decision-making evidence support logic (ESL) has been developed and applied to varied complex projects, nationally and internationally, in several industries. Evidence support logic involves breaking down a hypothesis that informs a decision into a hierarchical 'decision tree'. Examples of hypotheses are 'the geology associated with site x will provide sufficient disposal capacity', 'container x will contain waste form y for z years' and 'the engineered barrier system will provide the required safety functions'. Independent evaluations of confidence 'for' and 'against' bottom-level hypotheses allow the level of remaining uncertainty (or conflict) to be recognized explicitly, and the overall confidence (and uncertainty) relevant to the overall decision, and key sensitivities, to be represented clearly and succinctly.

Thus ESL can help (1) break down decisions into a manageable and logical structure, assisting clear presentation; (2) identify key uncertainties and sensitivities to inform prioritization; and (3) test whether the outcomes of specific studies have improved confidence.

Keywords

support logicgeological disposalradioactive waste management
Type
Research Article
Information
Mineralogical Magazine , Volume 76 , Issue 8 , December 2012 , pp. 3497 - 3507
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
© [2012] The Mineralogical Society of Great Britain and Ireland. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Mineralogical Society of Great Britain and Ireland 2012

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