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A Variação da Volatilidade Eleitoral no Brasil: Um teste das explicações políticas, econômicas e sociais

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Paulo Peres ,
Paolo Ricci  and
Lúcio R. Rennó
Paulo Peres
Affiliation:
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Paolo Ricci
Affiliation:
Universidade de São Paulo
Lúcio R. Rennó
Affiliation:
Universidade Nacional de Brasília
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Resumo

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O índice de volatilidade eleitoral tem sido usado como um dos principais indicadores de institucionalização dos sistemas partidários em países de democracia recente. Contudo, os estudos comparados usualmente analisam esse índice num nível de agregação dos dados muito elevado, avaliando sua variação com base nas médias nacionais. Sob tal perspectiva, nosso objetivo é analisar a volatilidade eleitoral brasileira tomando os 27 entes federativos como unidade de agregação dos dados eleitorais para a Câmara dos Deputados. Na primeira parte do artigo, mostramos que há grande variabilidade no índice entre os estados e entre as sucessivas eleições; na segunda parte, realizamos um teste estatístico do impacto explicativo de variáveis políticas, econômicas e sociais na variação da volatilidade eleitoral em duas dimensões: a temporal (entre as eleições) e a espacial (entre os estados). Os resultados mostram a importância de algumas variáveis políticas na explicação da variação da volatilidade eleitoral brasileira.

Abstract

Abstract

The index of electoral volatility has been used as the principal indicators of institutionalization of party systems in recently democratic countries. However, comparative studies usually analyze the index at a highly elevated level of aggregated data, evaluating the variation only in national terms. From this perspective, our goal is to analyze Brazilian electoral volatility by taking the twenty-seven federal units as units of aggregation of the electoral data for the Chamber of Deputies. In the first part of the article, we show that there is great variability in the index between the states and between the successive elections; in the second part, we run a statistical test of the explanatory impact of political, economic, and social variables in the variation of electoral volatility in two dimensions: temporal (between the elections) and spatial (between the states). The results demonstrate the importance of some political variables to explaining variation of Brazilian electoral volatility.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 46 , Issue 3 , 2011 , pp. 46 - 68
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 by the Latin American Studies Association

Footnotes

Agradecemos aos avaliadores anônimos pelas valiosas críticas e sugestões, as quais certamente contribuíram de maneira significativa para o aprimoramento metodológico e analítico deste trabalho. Obviamente, eventuais falhas remanescentes são de nossa inteira responsabilidade.

References

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