Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-tsvsl Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-29T20:54:27.973Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Cárteles de droga, violencia y competitividad electoral a nivel local: Evidencia del caso mexicano

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Aldo F. Ponce
Aldo F. Ponce*
Affiliation:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Resumen

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Este artículo explica los efectos de la violencia y, en particular, el tipo de violencia relacionado con los cárteles de droga y su influencia sobre la competitividad electoral a nivel local (municipal). Resulta pertinente comprender y estimar este efecto para asegurar que la democracia, definida sobre la base de su requisito más elemental—es decir, elecciones libres y justas —, no se deteriore o transite al autoritarismo en los gobiernos locales. Los resultados revelan un deterioro en la competitividad electoral a nivel local debido a la violencia relacionada con el tráfico ilegal de drogas. Las estrategias represivas del gobierno mexicano no han sido efectivas en prevenir este resultado.

Abstract

Abstract

This article explains the effects of violence, particularly the type of violence related to the functioning of drug cartels, and its effects on electoral competitiveness at the local level (municipal). It is relevant to understand and estimate these effects to ensure that democracy, which relies on its fundamental requisite (free and fair elections), does not deteriorate or move toward an authoritarian status quo at the local level. My results show a decline in electoral competitiveness as the scope of violence related to the functioning of drug cartels increases. The repressive strategies of the Mexican government do not seem to have been effective to prevent this effect.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 51 , Issue 4 , 2016 , pp. 62 - 85
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by the Latin American Studies Association

References

Referencias

Acemoglu, Daron, Robinson, James y Santos, Rafael 2013 “The Monopoly of Violence: Evidence from Colombia”. Journal of the European Economic Association 11 (S1): 5–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aksoy, Deniz 2014 “Elections and the Timing of Terrorist Attacks”. Journal of Politics 76 (4): 899–913.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
América Economía 2010 “Violencia del narcotráfico golpea a las elecciones en México”. América Economía, 17 de mayo. http://www.americaeconomia.com/politica-sociedad/sociedad/violencia-del-narcotrafico-golpea-las-elecciones-en-mexico.Google Scholar
Avila, Fernando, Flores, Emilio, López-Gallo, Fabrizio y Márquez, Javier 2012 “Concentration Indicators: Assessing the Gap between Aggregate and Detailed Data”. Artículo presentado en la conferencia del Irving Fisher Committee, Basilea, 28–29 de agosto.Google Scholar
Ayres, Robert 1998 Crime and Violence as Development Issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Bank.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, John, y Flores-Macías, Gustavo 2007 “Violent Crime and Democracy: Mexico in Comparative Perspective”. Artículo presentado en la conferencia anual del Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 12 de abril.Google Scholar
Bailey, John, y Taylor, Matthew 2009 “Evade, Corrupt, or Confront? Organized Crime and the State in Brazil and Mexico”. Journal of Politics in Latin America 1 (2): 3–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, Andy, Ames, Barry y Renno, Lucio 2006 “Social Context and Campaign Volatility in New Democracies: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil's 2002 Elections”. American Journal of Political Science 50 (2): 382–399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barcikowski, R. S. 1981 “Statistical Power with Group Mean as the Unit of Analysis”. Journal of Educational Statistics 6 (3): 267–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Paul, Dalton, Russell, Greene, Steven y Huckfeldt, Robert 2002 “The Social Calculus of Voting: Interpersonal, Media, and Organizational Influences on Presidential Choices”. American Political Science Review 96 (1): 57–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blair, R. Clifford, Higgins, J. J., Topping, Mary y Mortimer, Allen 1983 “An Investigation of the Robustness of the t Test to Unit of Analysis Violations”. Educational and Psychological Measurement 43 (1): 69–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Block, Douglas 2014 “Crime and Punishment? Violence and Incumbent Party Support in Mexico's Municipal and Federal Elections, 2001–2012”. Artículo presentado en la conferencia anual del Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 4 de abril.Google Scholar
Bratton, Michael 2008 “Vote Buying and Violence in Nigerian Election Campaigns”. Electoral Studies 27 (4): 621–632.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brinks, Daniel 2008 The Judicial Response to Police Killings in Latin America: Inequality and the Rule of Law. Nueva York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Buvinic, Mayra, y Morrison, Andrew 1999 “How Is Violence Measured?” Nota técnica 2, Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, julio.Google Scholar
Cadena-Montenegro, José Luis 2010 “Geopolítica del narcotráfico: México y Colombia: La equivocación en el empleo de las fuerzas militares”. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales 52 (210): 45–58.Google Scholar
Carreras, Miguel 2013 “The Impact of Criminal Violence on Regime Legitimacy in Latin America”. Latin American Research Review 48 (3): 85–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casas-Zamora, Kevin 2010 “Mexico's Forever War”. Foreign Policy, 23 de diciembre. http://foreignpolicy.com/2010/12/23/mexicos-forever-war/.Google Scholar
Ceobanu, Alin, Wood, Charles y Ribeiro, Ludmila 2011 “Crime Victimization and Public Support for Democracy: Evidence from Latin America”. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 23 (1): 56–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chabat, Jorge 1994 “Seguridad nacional y narcotráfico: Vínculos reales e imaginarios”. Política y Gobierno 1 (1): 97–123.Google Scholar
Chabat, Jorge 2005 “Narcotráfico y estado: El discreto encanto de la corrupción”. Letras Libres, septiembre. http://www.letraslibres.com/revista/convivio/narcotrafico-y-estado-el-discreto-encanto-de-la-corrupcion.Google Scholar
Chaturvedi, Ashish 2005 “Rigging Elections with Violence”. Public Choice 125 (1): 189–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, y Vicente, Pedro 2012 “Violence, Bribery, and Fraud: The Political Economy of Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa”. Public Choice 153 (1): 117–147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, y Vicente, Pedro 2014 “Votes and Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria”. Economic Journal 124 (574): 327–355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Michaelene 2003 “When Trust Matters: Explaining Differences in Voter Turnout”. Journal of Common Market Studies 41 (4): 757–770.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Creedy, John 1998 The Dynamics of Inequality and Poverty: Comparing Income Distributions. Northhampton, MA: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Cruz, José Miguel 2000 “Violencia, democracia y cultura política”. Nueva Sociedad 167:132–146.Google Scholar
Cruz, José Miguel 2003 “Violencia y democratización en Centroamérica: El impacto del crimen en la legitimidad de los regímenes de posguerra”. América Latina Hoy 35:19–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, Robert 1971 Polyarchy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dávila, Patricia 2009 “La batalla por Juárez”. En El México narco, editado por Castañeda, Rafael, 49–55. México, DF: Planeta.Google Scholar
Díez, Jordi 2012 “Civil-Military Relations in Mexico: The Unfinished Transition”. En The Oxford Handbook of Mexican Politics, editado por Camp, Roderic Ai, 365–385. Nueva York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Eisner, Manuel 2013 “What Causes Large-Scale Variation in Homicide Rates?” En Aggression in Humans and Primates, editado por Hans-Henning Kortüm y Jürgen Heinze, 137–162. Berlin: de GruyterCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellman, Matthew, y Wantchekon, Leonard 2000 “Electoral Competition under the Threat of Political Unrest”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (2): 499–531.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Escalante, Fernando 2011 “Homicidios 2008–2009: La muerte tiene permiso”. Nexos, 1 de enero. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=14089.Google Scholar
Fernández, Kenneth, y Kuenzi, Michele 2010 “Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America”. Political Studies 58 (3): 450–471.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flores, Carlos 2009 El estado en crisis: Crimen organizado y política. Desafíos para la consolidación democrática. México, DF: Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Superiores de Antropología Social.Google Scholar
Flores, Carlos 2012 “La lógica del botín: De la cooptación del estado y el estado ‘fallido‘”. Arenas: Revista Sinaloense de Ciencias Sociales 13 (30): 11–44.Google Scholar
García, Miguel 2009 “Political Violence and Electoral Democracy in Colombia: Participation and Voting Behavior in Violent Contexts”. Disertación doctoral, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.Google Scholar
Gibson, Edward 2005 “Boundary Control: Subnational Authoritarianism in Democratic Countries”. World Politics 58 (1): 101–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilliam, Franklin, y Iyengar, Shanto 2000 “Prime Suspects: The Influence of Local Television News on the Viewing Public”. American Journal of Political Science 44 (3): 560–573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guardado Rodríguez, Jenny 2009 “La identidad partidista en México: Las dimensiones políticas de la competencia en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2006”. Política y Gobierno (1): 137–175.Google Scholar
Guerrero-Gutiérrez, Eduardo 2010a “Cómo reducir la violencia en México”. Nexos, 1 de noviembre. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=13997.Google Scholar
Guerrero-Gutiérrez, Eduardo 2010b “Pandillas y cárteles: La gran alianza”. Nexos, 1 de junio. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=13690.Google Scholar
Guerrero-Gutiérrez, Eduardo 2011 “La raíz de la violencia”. Nexos, 1 de junio. http://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=14318.Google Scholar
Hall, Marshall, y Tideman, Nicolaus 1967 “Measures of Concentration”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 62 (317): 162–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinton, Mercedes 2006 The State on the Streets: Police and Politics in Argentina and Brazil. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Indermaur, David 1996 “Violent Crime in Australia: Interpreting the Trends”. Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice 61:1–6.Google Scholar
Kerbel, Matthew 2001 If It Bleeds, It Leads. An Anatomy of Television News. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Klesner, Joseph 2012 “Regionalism in Mexican Electoral Politics”. En The Oxford Handbook of Mexican Politics, editado por Camp, Roderic Ai, 622–648. Nueva York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malone, Mary Fran T. 2010 “The Verdict Is In: The Impact of Crime on Public Trust in Central American Justice Systems”. Journal of Politics in Latin America 2 (3): 99–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medina, Xavier, Ugues, Antonio, Bowler, Shaun y Hiskey, Jonathan 2010 “Partisan Attachment and Democracy in Mexico: Some Cautionary Observations”. Latin American Politics and Society 52 (1): 63–87.Google Scholar
Mickey, Robert 2009 Paths out of Dixie: The Democratization of Authoritarian Enclaves in America's Deep South. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Montero, Juan Carlos 2012 “La estrategia contra el crimen organizado en México: Análisis del diseño de la política pública”. Perfiles Latinoamericanos 20 (39): 7–30.Google Scholar
Moreno, Alejandro 2003 Democracia, actitudes políticas y conducta electoral. México, DF: Fondo de Cultura Económica.Google Scholar
Moreno, Alejandro 2012 “Who Is the Mexican Voter?” En The Oxford Handbook of Mexican Politics, editado por Camp, Roderic Ai, 571–595. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moreno, Alejandro, y Méndez, Patricia 2007 “La identificación partidista en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2006 en México”. Política y Gobierno 14 (1): 43–75.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo 1993 “On the State, Democratization, and Some Conceptual Problems: A Latin American View with Glances at Some Post-Communist Countries”. World Development 21 (8): 1355–1370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oficina de las Naciones Unidas sobre las Drogas y el Crimen 2014 Estadísticas sobre el número y la tasa de homicidios. https://data.unodc.org/#state:1 (capturado el 15 de julio del 2014).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pereyra, Guillermo 2012 “México: Violencia criminal y ‘guerra contra el narcotráfico.‘” Revista Mexicana de Sociología 74 (3): 429–460.Google Scholar
Raudenbush, Stephen, y Bryk, Anthony 2002 Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods. 2nd ed. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Ríos, Viridiana 2010 “To Be or Not To Be a Drug Trafficker: Modeling Criminal Occupational Choices”. Artículo presentado en la conferencia anual del Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 27 de abril.Google Scholar
Ríos, Viridiana 2012 “How Government Structure Encourages Criminal Violence: The Causes of Mexico's Drug War”. Disertación doctoral, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Ríos, Viridiana, y Shirk, David 2011 Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis through 2010. San Diego, CA: Trans-Border Institute, Universidad de San Diego.Google Scholar
Robinson, James, y Torvik, Ragnar 2009 “The Real Swing Voters' Curse”. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 99 (2): 310–315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rojas, Luis 2013 “Líder de partido gobernante México pide ‘cuidado extremo’ a candidatos por violencia”. Noticias Terra, 30 de junio. http://noticias.terra.com.mx/mexico/politica/elecciones/2011/lider-de-partido-gobernante-mexico-pide-cuidado-extremo-a-candidatos-por-violencia,2ba9e64f2b59f310VgnCLD2000000dc6eb0aRCRD.html.Google Scholar
Romer, Daniel, Jamieson, Kathleen y Aday, Sean 2003 “Television News and the Cultivation of Fear of Crime”. Journal of Communication 53 (1): 88–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sánchez, Fabio, y Palau, María Del Mar 2006 “Conflict, Decentralisation, and Local Governance in Colombia, 1974–2000”. Documento de Trabajo CEDE 2006–20, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá.Google Scholar
Sartori, Giovanni 1976 Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sberna, Salvatore 2011 “Electoral Competition and Criminal Violence in Italy (1983–2003)”. Artículo presentado en el seminario del ECPR llamado “Political Institutions and Conflict”, St. Gallen, Suiza, 12 de abril.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas 2013 The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schumpeter, Joseph 1994 Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Oxon, Reino Unido: Routledge.Google Scholar
Selb, Peter 2009 “A Deeper Look at the Proportionality—Turnout Nexus”. Comparative Political Studies 42 (4): 527–548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seligson, Mitchell 2002 “Trouble or Paradise? The Erosion of System Support in Costa Rica, 1978–1999”. Latin American Research Review 37 (1): 160–185.Google Scholar
Shryock, Henry S., y Siegel, Jacob S. 1976 The Methods and Materials of Demography. Nueva York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Smith, Amy Erica 2009 “Legitimate Grievances: Preferences for Democracy, System Support, and Political Participation in Bolivia”. Latin American Research Review 44 (3): 102–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Somuano, Fernanda 2014 “Las identidades partidistas de los mexicanos y la elección del 2012”. En El comportamiento electoral mexicano en las elecciones de 2012, editado por Meixueiro, Gustavo y Moreno, Alejandro, 117–140. México, DF: Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Opinión Pública.Google Scholar
Somuano, Fernanda, y Velázquez, Rodrigo 2013 “The Double Effect of Crime and Violence in Mexico”. Documento de Trabajo Núm. 275, División de Administración Pública, Centro de Investigación y Docencias Económicas, Toluca, México.Google Scholar
Steenbergen, Marco, y Jones, Bradford 2002 “Modeling Multilevel Data Structures”. American Journal of Political Science 46 (1): 218–237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomas, Reuben 2013 “Population Size, Network Density, and the Emergence of Inherited Inequality”. Social Forces 92 (2): 521–544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobin, James 1958 “Estimating Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables”. Econometrica 26 (1): 24–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trelles, Alejandro, y Carreras, Miguel 2012 “Bullets and Votes: Violence and Electoral Participation in Mexico”. Journal of Politics in Latin America 4 (2): 89–123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tulchin, Joseph, y Ruthenburg, Meg 2006 Toward a Society under Law: Citizens and Their Police in Latin America. Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press; Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Velasco, José Luis 2005 “Drogas, seguridad y cambio político en México”. Nueva Sociedad 198:89–101.Google Scholar
Villarreal, Andrés 2002 “Political Competition and Violence in Mexico: Hierarchical Social Control in Local Patronage”. American Sociological Review 67 (4): 477–498.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkinson, Steve 2004 Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, Carole 2008 “Consideration Sets and Political Choices: A Heterogeneous Model of Vote Choice and Subnational Party Strength”. Political Behavior 30 (2): 161–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, James, y Petersilia, Joan 2011 Crime and Public Policy. Nueva York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar