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A Statistical Review of the Evidence for the Existence of Temporary Selection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

Hilary L. Seal
Hilary L. Seal
Affiliation:
Department of Zoology, Yale University
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Extract

The theory of ‘temporary selection’ is concerned with the variation, for fixed x, of q[x–t]+t the observed rate of mortality at age x during the t+1th year after the issue of an assurance or annuity contract. The classical view is that—apart from chance variations—q[x–t]+t increases gradually with increasing t until the effects of selection have disappeared after which time q[xx–t]+t is a constant depending on x only.

Various reasons have been suggested for the persistence of temporary selection in an observed series of values of q[xx–t]+t. The chief of these are:

(1) The continuing effects of an initial selection on the part of the assurance company or by the annuitant (Morgan, 1834);

(2) The gradual withdrawal from assurance of healthy lives (Higham, 1851); and

(3) Secular improvements in medicals election or in the self-selection of annuitants (Karup, 1903).

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , Volume 85 , Issue 2 , September 1959 , pp. 165 - 210
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1959

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