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The changing religious composition of Nigeria: causes and implications of demographic divergence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 July 2016

Marcin Stonawski ,
Michaela Potančoková ,
Matthew Cantele  and
Vegard Skirbekk
Marcin Stonawski*
Affiliation:
University of Oslo, Department of Sociology and Human Geography, P.O. Box 1096 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway and Cracow University of Economics, Department of Demography, Rakowicka 27, 31-510 Cracow, Poland
Michaela Potančoková*
Affiliation:
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography, Welthandelsplatz 2, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Matthew Cantele*
Affiliation:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Vegard Skirbekk*
Affiliation:
Columbia University, Columbia Aging Centre, 722 W. 168th Street, NY 1003, New York, USA
*
Email: m.j.stonawski@sosgeo.uio.no
Email: Michaela.Potancokova@oeaw.ac.at
Email: cantele@iiasa.ac.at
Email: Vegard.Skirbekk@fhi.no
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Abstract

At nearly 170 million inhabitants, Nigeria is Africa's most populous country by twofold and fertility levels remain higher than most other sub-Saharan African nations. Throughout the last several decades, the fertility gap between Christians and Muslims has widened with significant political implications for a nascent democracy. Where the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) survey of 1990 revealed a non-significant difference of 0·3 children, this figure had increased to 2·3 children by 2013. As the total fertility rate (TFR) of Christians decreased significantly from 6·1 to 4·5 children per woman between 1990 and 2013, the TFR of Muslims increased from 6·4 to 6·8 children per woman. The timing of this divergence coincides with the formal institutionalization of Sharia law in 1999. We examine the role of religion on education, contraception and family behaviour. Finally, we touch upon the implications for population growth and the religious composition of Nigeria in the coming decades.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Modern African Studies , Volume 54 , Issue 3 , September 2016 , pp. 361 - 387
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

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