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Predicting the benefit of screening for disease

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Neil Dubin
Neil Dubin*
Affiliation:
New York University Medical Center
*
∗Postal address: Institute of Environmental Medicine, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Laboratory, New York University Medical Center, 341 East 25th St., New York, NY10010, U.S.A.
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Abstract

To evaluate the benefits and risks associated with screening for disease, a model is developed to characterize the changes in incidence and survival distributions effected by a screening program. Screening is presumed to increase survival by resulting in diagnosis of disease at earlier stages. All disease states in the model are observable, thus facilitating application to empirical data. An example of such an application using data from a breast cancer detection project is given for the case of one screening for two-stage disease having Weibull-distributed diagnosis times.

Keywords

BENEFITS AND RISKS OF SCREENINGMATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DISEASEMEASURES OF BENEFITINCIDENCE AND SURVIVAL DISTRIBUTIONSMAMMOGRAPHY
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 18 , Issue 2 , June 1981 , pp. 348 - 360
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 

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Footnotes

Research supported by National Cancer Institute Cancer Center Grant No. CA-16087 and National Cancer Institute Contract No. NCI–CB–74103–34.

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