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Large deviation principle for epidemic models

  • Etienne Pardoux (a1) and Brice Samegni-Kepgnou (a1)


We consider a general class of epidemic models obtained by applying the random time changes of Ethier and Kurtz (2005) to a collection of Poisson processes and we show the large deviation principle for such models. We generalise the approach followed by Dolgoarshinnykh (2009) in the case of the SIR epidemic model. Thanks to an additional assumption which is satisfied in many examples, we simplify the recent work of Kratz and Pardoux (2017).


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* Postal address: CNRS UMR 7373 (I2M), Aix-Marseille Université, CMI, 39 rue F. Joliot Curie, F-13453 Marseille, France.
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Large deviation principle for epidemic models

  • Etienne Pardoux (a1) and Brice Samegni-Kepgnou (a1)


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