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Sensitivity analyses of the ARCWHEAT1 crop model: the effect of changes in radiation and temperature

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 March 2009

Z. Kocabas ,
R. A. C. Mitchell ,
J. Craigon  and
J. N. Perry
Z. Kocabas
Affiliation:
University of Nottingham, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough, Leics LE12 5RD, UK
R. A. C. Mitchell
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
J. Craigon
Affiliation:
University of Nottingham, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough, Leics LE12 5RD, UK
J. N. Perry
Affiliation:
AFRC Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
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Summary

The sensitivity of predicted final grain yield to changes in the mean and variance of daily temperature and daily log(radiation) was studied for the arcwheat1 crop model of winter wheat. These two climatic variables were each simulated by each of two stochastic models, the parameters of which were estimated from 12 years' data from Rothamsted Experimental Station.

When arcwheat1 was run with systematic changes in daily temperature from – 2 °C to +2 °C in steps of 0·1 °C, there were abrupt changes in predicted final grain yield which coincided with predicted increases in leaf number. These effects were smoothed out when the stochastic climate models incorporating simulated daily variation were used as inputs, in multiple runs of arcwheat1.

In such runs, the response of predicted yield to changes in the means of temperature and log(radiation) was studied both for individual developmental stages and over the entire growing season. Yield was insensitive to changes in temperature and radiation during the stage between sowing and emergence, and to changes in radiation before terminal spikelet formation.

Type
Crops and Soils
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 120 , Issue 2 , April 1993 , pp. 149 - 158
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1993

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