Skip to main content Accessibility help

Hurricanes and Possible Intensity Increases: Effects on and Reactions from U.S. Agriculture

  • Chi-Chung Chen (a1) and Bruce McCarl (a2)


Hurricanes have caused substantial damage in parts of the U.S. Damages are increasing, perhaps as part of a natural cycle or perhaps in part related to global warming. This paper examines the economic damages that hurricanes cause to U.S. agriculture, estimates the increased damage from an increase in hurricane frequency/intensity, and examines the way that sectoral reactions reduce damages. The simulation results show that hurricanes and associated adjustments cause widespread damage and redistribute agricultural welfare. We find that crop mix shifts of vulnerable crops from stricken to nonstricken regions significantly mitigate hurricane damages.



Hide All
Baumes, H.A Partial Equilibrium Sector Model of US Agriculture Open to Trade: A Domestic Agricultural and Agricultural Trade Policy Analysis.” Ph.D. dissertation, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 1978.
Becker, N.A Comparative Analysis of Water Price Support versus Drought Compensation Scheme.Agricultural Economics 21(1999):8192.
Bin, O., and Polasky, S.Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd.Land Economics 80(2004):490500.
Blake, E.S., Jarrell, J.D., and Rappaport, E.N.. 2006. The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2005. OAA/NWS/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-4. Internet site:
Blake, E.S., Jarrell, J.D., Rappaport, E.N., and Landsea, C.W.. The Deadliest Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1851 to 2004. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-4, 2005.
Brown, S., Madison, D., Goodwin, H.L., and Clark, D.The Potential Effects on United States Agriculture of an Avian Influenza Outbreak.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39(2007):335–43.
Burras, R.T., Dumas, CF., Farrell, CH., and Hall, W.W.Impact of Low-Intensity Hurricanes on Regional Economic Activity.Natural Hazards Review 3(2002):118–25.
Burton, M.L., and Hicks, M.J.Hurricane Katrina: Preliminary Estimates of Commercial and Public Sector Damages.” Working Paper, Center of Business and Economic Research, Marshall University, Huntington WV, 2005.
Chang, C.C., McCarl, B.A., Mjelde, J.W., and Richardson, J.Sectoral Implications of Farm Program Modifications.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 74(1992):3849.
Chen, C.C., and Chang, C.C.The Impact of Weather on Crop Yield Distribution in Taiwan: Some New Evidence from Panel Data Models and Implications for Crop Insurance.Journal of Agricultural Economics 33(2005):503–11.
Chen, C.C., and McCarl, B.A.The Value of ENSO Information: Consideration of Uncertainty and Trade.Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 25(2000):368–85.
Chen, C.C, McCarl, B.A., and Schimmelpfennig, D.E.Yield Variability as Influenced by Climate: A Statistical Investigation.Climatic Change 66(2004):239–61.
Chmielewski, F.M., and Potts, J.M.The Relationship between Crop Yields from an Experiment in Southern England and Long-Term Climate Variations.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 73(1995):4366.
Cocks, K.D.Discrete Stochastic Programming.Management Science 15(1968):7279.
Dantzig, G.Linear Programming Under Uncertainty.Management Science 1(1955):197206.
Emanuel, K.Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years.Nature 436(2005):686–88.
Fellin, L., and Fuller, S.Effects of Privatizing Mexico's Railroad System on U.S.-Mexico Overland Grain/Oilseed Trade.Transportation Research Forum 37(1998):4664.
Guidry, K.M. Assessment of Damage to Louisiana Agricultural, Forestry, and Fisheries Sectors by Hurricane Katrina. Agricultural Center, Research and Extension, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 2005.
Hallstrom, D., and Smith, K.Market Response to Hurricanes.Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 50(2005):541–61.
Herndon, C.W., Anderson, J.D., Martin, S.W., and Hood, K.W.. Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Mississippi Agriculture. Extension Service, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS, 2005.
Just, R., and Pope, R.D.Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61(1979):277–84.
Lambert, D.K., McCarl, B.A., He, Q., Kay-len, M.S., Rosenthal, W., Chang, C.C., and Nayda, W.I.Uncertain Yields in Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application to Global Warming.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 27(1995):423–35.
McCarl, B.A., and Parandvash, G.H.Irrigation Development versus Hydroelectric Generation: Can Interruptible Irrigation Play a Role?Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 13(1988):267–76.
McCarl, B.A., and Spreen, T.H.Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming as a Tool for Sector Analysis.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1980):87102.
Naylor, R.L., Falcon, W.P., Rochberg, D., and Wada, N.Using El Nino/Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Predict Rice Production in Indonesia.Climatic Change 50(2001):255–65.
NOAA. U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade. Internet site:
NOAA. Historical Hurricane Tracks. Internet site:
Norton, R.D., and Schiefer, G.W.Agricultural Sector Programming Models: A Review.European Review of Agriculture Economics 7(1980):229–64.
Paarlberg, P.L., Lee, J.G., and Seitzinger, A.H.Measuring Welfare Effects of an FMD Outbreak in the United States.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 35(2003):5365.
Paarlberg, P.L., Seitzinger, H.A., and Lee, J.G.Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39(2007):325–33.
Pendell, D.L., Leatherman, J., Schroeder, T.C., and Alward, G.S.The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39(2007):1931.
Pielke, R.A., and Landsea, C.W.Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States:1925-95.Weather and Forecasting 13(1998):621–31.
Pinelli, J.P., Simiu, E., Gurley, K., Subramanian, C., Shang, L., Cope, A., Filliben, J.J., and Hamid, S.Hurricane Damage Prediction Model for Residential Structures.Journal of Structural Engineering 130(2004):168591.
Roningen, V. A Static World Policy Simulation (SWOPSIM) Modeling Framework. Staff Rep. No. AGE860265. Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1986.
Saha, A., Havenner, A., and Talpaz, H.Stochastic Production Function Estimation: Small Sample Properties of ML versus FGLS.Applied Economics 29(1997):459–69.
Takayama, T., and Judge, G.G.. Spatial and Temporal Price and Allocation Models. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1971.
Thaysen, K.An Analysis of Agricultural Risk Implications of United States Policy Change.” PhD dissertation, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, 1995.
Tiongco, M., and Dawe, D.Long-Term Evolution of Productivity in a Sample of Philippine Rice Farm: Implications for Sustainability and Future Research.World Development 30(2002):891–98.
USDA-NASS. Agricultural Statistics 1951-2005. USDA. A Preliminary Assessment of The Effects of Katrina and Drought on U.S. Agriculture. USDA/OCE, 2005.
U.S. Department of Commerce. Hurricane Katrina Service Assessment Report, 2006.
Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A., and Chang, H.-R.Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment.Science 309(2005):184446.
West, C, and Lenze, D.Modeling the Regional Impact of Natural Disaster and Recovery: A General Framework and an Application of Hurricane Andrew.International Regional Science Review 17(1994):121–50.


Hurricanes and Possible Intensity Increases: Effects on and Reactions from U.S. Agriculture

  • Chi-Chung Chen (a1) and Bruce McCarl (a2)


Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed