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Factional Influence on the 2001 LDP Primaries: A Quantitative Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 March 2006

GEORGE EHRHARDT
GEORGE EHRHARDT
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice Institution: Appalachian State Universityehrhardtgc@appstate.edu
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Abstract

For the first time in 20 years, the prefectural level 2001 LDP primaries offer a chance to reevaluate the relationship between Diet members and the LDP rank and file. Since 1982, scholars have agreed that Diet members use their support organizations to control how rank and file vote in LDP leadership contests; and the absence of any suitable data from the 1980s and 1990s has prevented a reassessment of this hypothesis in Japan's evolving political environment. This study uses regression analysis on prefectural-level primary ballot totals in order to measure Diet member influence over the rank-and-file primaries. The results suggest while national politicians did influence voters, their impact was too small to affect the outcome of the election. This implies that the relationship between LDP Diet members and the rank and file is changing and suggests directions for further study.

Type
Research Article
Information
Japanese Journal of Political Science , Volume 7 , Issue 1 , April 2006 , pp. 59 - 69
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

Thanks to Stephen Reed and Susan Kay for their suggestions during the early stages of this project, and to Patrick Brandt, and Gary King for their assistance with the statistical analysis.