Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-sxzjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-20T01:58:34.563Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Feigning Weakness

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 July 2010

Branislav L. Slantchev
Branislav L. Slantchev
Affiliation:
The University of California San Diego. E-mail: slantchev@ucsd.edu.
Get access

Abstract

In typical crisis bargaining models, strong actors must convince the opponent that they are not bluffing and the only way to do so is through costly signaling. However, in a war, strong actors can benefit from tactical surprise when their opponent mistakenly believes that they are weak. This creates contradictory incentives during the pre-war crisis: actors want to persuade the opponent of their strength to gain a better deal but, should war break out, they would rather have the opponent believe they are weak. I present an ultimatum crisis bargaining model that incorporates this dilemma and show that a strong actor may feign weakness during the bargaining phase. This implies that (1) absence of a costly signal is not an unambiguous revelation of weakness, (2) the problem of uncertainty is worse because the only actor with incentives to overcome it may be unwilling to do so, and (3) because of the difficulty with concealing resolve, democracies might be seriously disadvantaged in a crisis.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 64 , Issue 3 , July 2010 , pp. 357 - 388
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Appleman, Roy E. 1961. South to the Naktong, North to the Yalu. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Banks, Jeffrey S. 1990. Equilibrium Behavior in Crisis Bargaining Games. American Journal of Political Science 34 (3):599–614.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blainey, Geoffrey. 1988. The Causes of War. 3rd ed.New York: Free Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph, and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Jian. 1994. China's Road to the Korean War: The Making of the Sino-American Confrontation. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fey, Mark, and Ramsay, Kristopher W.. 2007. Mutual Optimism and War. American Journal of Political Science 51 (4):738–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garfinkel, Michelle R., and Skaperdas, Stergios. 2007. Economics of Conflict: An Overview. In Handbook of Defense Economics. 2, Defense in a Globalized World, edited by Sandler, Todd and Hartley, Keith, 649–710. Amsterdam: North Holland.Google Scholar
George, Alexander L., and Simons, William E.. 1994. The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy. 2nd ed.Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Smith, Alastair. 2002. Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (2):175–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirshleifer, Jack. 1989. Conflict and Rent-Seeking Success Functions: Ratio vs. Difference Models of Relative Success. Public Choice 63:101–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hörner, Johannes, and Sahuguet, Nicholas. 2007. Costly Signaling in Auctions. Review of Economic Studies 74 (1):173–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurizaki, Shuhei. 2007. Efficient Secrecy: Public versus Private Threats in Crisis Diplomacy. American Political Science Review 101 (3):543–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned. 1981. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 2000. Alliances: Why Write Them Down? Annual Reviews of Political Science 3:63–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Münster, Johannes. 2009. Repeated Contests with Asymmetric Information. Journal of Public Economic Theory 11 (1):89–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1993. Guns, Butter, and Anarchy. American Political Science Review 87 (1):115–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1996. Stability and the Distribution of Power. World Politics 48 (2):239–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1999. in the Shadow of Power: States and Strategies in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, Jeffrey M. 2004. Silent Partners and Other Essays on Alliance Politics. Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.Google Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2005. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises. American Political Science Review 92 (4):829–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2005. Military Coercion in Interstate Crises. American Political Science Review 99 (4):533–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2006. Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs. International Studies Quarterly 50 (2):445–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2010. Military Threats: The Costs of Coercion and the Price of Peace. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L., and Tarar, Ahmer. Forthcoming.Mutual Optimism as a Rationalist Explanation for War. American Journal of Political Science.Google Scholar
Stueck, William. 2002. Rethinking the Korean War: A New Diplomatic and Strategic History. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sun Tzu. 2005. The Art of War. Translated by Giles, Lionel. El Paso Norte, Texas: El Paso Norte Press.Google Scholar
U. S. Department of State. 1976. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. 7, Korea. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. Bargaining and War. American Journal of Political Science 44 (3):469–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whiting, Allen S. 1960. China Crosses the Yalu: The Decision to Enter the Korean War. New York: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wittman, Donald. 1979. How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 23 (4):743–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar