Approximately 34.8 million people globally are affected by HIV, 34,000 of whom are in Türkiye, and the impact of HIV continues to grow. Not providing the necessary treatment eventually leads to life threatening AIDS-related consequences. In this study, a descriptive analysis of the published official data on HIV/AIDS was undertaken to assess existing statistics and raise social awareness. The aim was to provide data that will help decision makers in future planning by forecasting the possible number of cases and treatment costs to 2030 using available statistics in Türkiye.

The forecast of HIV-infected patients, deaths, and healthcare costs to 2030 were calculated using linear regression based on data published between 1985 and 2022 in the literature or by official authorities. The proportion of past deaths caused by AIDS was used to forecast deaths, and the number of patients living with HIV was estimated indirectly using this forecast. Possible treatment expenditures related to HIV/AIDS in Türkiye were estimated based on published healthcare cost data and the number of living patients obtained by considering the possible increase in HIV/AIDS cases, future inflation predictions from the Turkish Central Bank, existing literature, and information from statista.com.

Estimates suggested that 3,002 new cases of HIV/AIDS in 2021 will become 5,709 among a total of 74,227 living patients in 2030. The 598 deaths reported between 1985 and 2022 are predicted to rise to 1,256 by 2030. Estimation of the total treatment cost of HIV/AIDS was TRY1,051,026,183 (USD118,683,580) in 2021, which was estimated to reach TRY15,432,842,049 (USD296,450,696) by 2030. This consisted of outpatient visits (TRY246,710,838 [USD4,739,088]), laboratory tests (TRY2,072,489,815 [USD39,810,623]), inpatient visits (TRY1,352,192,479 [USD25,974,373]), management of complications (TRY3,371,126,960 [USD64,756,247]), and antiretroviral therapy drugs (TRY8,390,321,957 [USD161,170,365]).

The prevalence of HIV/AIDS is expected to rise by 137 percent by 2030, with the economic burden increasing 14.7 times in TRY (2.5 times in USD) from 2021 to 2030 in Türkiye. This proves the severity of the situation and the need for relevant policy measures for society.