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Modeling, Statistics and Political Circumstances

How the Concept of Economic Development Triumphed and what this Means for Development Alternatives

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 December 2015

Philipp Lepenies
Philipp Lepenies*
Affiliation:
Freie Universität Berlin [philipp.lepenies@fu-berlin.de]
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Abstract

The notion of “economic development” dominates aid policy. A nation’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (gdp) determines whether that country is considered developed or less developed, and the standard measure of any developmental progress is gdp growth. This article investigates the evolution of the concept of economic development, as it emerged from a specific combination of modeling, statistics and political circumstances. In this story, Arthur Lewis played a decisive role, but only by building upon Colin Clark’s first global national income statistics, an indispensible foundation for Lewis’s seminal model of economic development. This model was embraced by policy makers longing for a theoretical framework to clarify and operationalize the hitherto vague concept of development. More importantly, however, the statistical indicator on which Lewis based his theory had already been universally accepted. In other words: statistics came before theory. This holds important lessons for alternative development ideas. It explains why the idea of economic development remains so firmly entrenched and suggests the conditions that might be necessary for an alternative theory to take hold.

Résumé

La notion de « développement économique » domine les politiques d’aide internationale. Le Produit Intérieur Brut (pib) d’une nation détermine si celle-ci est développée ou non, et la croissance du pib est devenue la mesure standard de tout progrès en termes de développement. Cet article étudie l’évolution du concept de développement économique, tel qu’il a émergé à partir d’une combinaison spécifique de modélisation, de statistique et de circonstances politiques. Dans cette histoire, Arthus Lewis a joué un rôle décisif, mais en s’appuyant sur les travaux antérieurs de Colin Clark consacrés à la statistique sur le revenu national, le fondement indispensable pour le modèle de développement économique proposé par la suite par Lewis. Ce modèle a été adopté par les décideurs politiques en quête de cadre théorique pour éclairer et rendre opérationnel le concept, jusqu’alors vague, de développement. De façon plus décisive encore, l’indicateur statistique sur lequel Lewis appuie sa théorie était d’ores et déjà universellement accepté. En d’autres termes : la statistique est venue avant la théorie. Cela implique des enseignements importants pour les approches alternatives du développement : cela explique non seulement pourquoi l’idée de développement économique reste si solidement ancrée mais suggère certaines conditions nécessaires pour qu’une théorie alternative puisse s’établir.

Zusammenfassung

Das Konzept der ”„wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung„ dominiert die internationale Zusammenarbeit. Das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen (gemessen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt bip) zeigt, ob ein Land mehr oder weniger entwickelt ist. Der Standardindikator dafür, dass Entwicklung stattfindet, ist das bip-Wachstum. Dieser Artikel untersucht die Entstehung des Konzepts der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung als das Ergebnis eines besonderen Zusammenspiels von Modellierung, Statistik und politischen Rahmenbedingungen. In dieser Geschichte spielt Arthur Lewis eine besondere Rolle – aber nur weil er auf die ersten internationalen Einkommensstatistiken Colin Clarks zurückgreifen konnte, die eine grundlegende Basis für Lewis berühmtes Modell der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung darstellten. Lewis Modell der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung wurde von Politikern dankbar aufgegriffen, da es endlich das lange sehr vage verstandene Konzept der Entwicklung konkretisierte und operationalisierbar machte. Wichtiger jedoch war, dass die Statistiken, auf die Lewis seine Argumentation aufbaute, schon lange poltisch etabliert und akzeptiert waren, bevor sie theoretisch untermauert wurden. Mit anderen Worten: Statistik kam in dieser Geschichte vor der Theorie. Dies ist eine wichtige Lektion für den Versuch, Alternativen zur Idee der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung zu etablieren. Es kann gezeigt werden, warum das Konzept der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung so fest im Sattel sitzt und welche Bedingungen und Schritte notwendig wären, damit sich Alternativen durchsetzen.

Keywords

Economic DevelopmentStatisticsGross Domestic ProductDevelopment AlternativesEconomic ModelsDéveloppement économiqueStatistiquesProduit Intérieur BrutAlternatives de développementModèles économiquesWirtschaftliche EntwicklungStatistikBruttoinlandsproduktEntwicklungs-alternativenÖkonomische Modelle
Type
Key Concept
Information
European Journal of Sociology / Archives Européennes de Sociologie , Volume 56 , Issue 3 , December 2015 , pp. 375 - 404
Copyright
Copyright © A.E.S. 2015 

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