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Seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

  • Zehong Huang (a1), Mingzhai Wang (a2), Luxia Qiu (a1), Ning Wang (a3), Zeyu Zhao (a1), Jia Rui (a1), Yao Wang (a1), Xingchun Liu (a1), Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah (a4), Benhua Zhao (a1), Yanhua Su (a1), Bin Zhao (a5) and Tianmu Chen (a1)...

Abstract

This study attempts to figure out the seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). A mathematical model was established to calculate the transmissibility based on the reported data for HFMD in Xiamen City, China from 2014 to 2018. The transmissibility was measured by effective reproduction number (Reff) in order to evaluate the seasonal characteristics of HFMD. A total of 43 659 HFMD cases were reported in Xiamen, for the period 2014 to 2018. The median of annual incidence was 221.87 per 100 000 persons (range: 167.98/100,000–283.34/100 000). The reported data had a great fitting effect with the model (R2 = 0.9212, P < 0.0001), it has been shown that there are two epidemic peaks of HFMD in Xiamen every year. Both incidence and effective reproduction number had seasonal characteristics. The peak of incidence, 1–2 months later than the effective reproduction number, occurred in Summer and Autumn, that is, June and October each year. Both the incidence and transmissibility of HFMD have obvious seasonal characteristics, and two annual epidemic peaks as well. The peak of incidence is 1–2 months later than Reff.

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Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

Authors for correspondence: Tianmu Chen, E-mail: 13698665@qq.com; Yanhua Su, E-mail: suyanhua813@xmu.edu.cn; Bin Zhao, E-mail: 393603468@qq.com

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These authors contributed equally to this study

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Keywords

Seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

  • Zehong Huang (a1), Mingzhai Wang (a2), Luxia Qiu (a1), Ning Wang (a3), Zeyu Zhao (a1), Jia Rui (a1), Yao Wang (a1), Xingchun Liu (a1), Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah (a4), Benhua Zhao (a1), Yanhua Su (a1), Bin Zhao (a5) and Tianmu Chen (a1)...

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