Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-m42fx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-21T00:43:23.925Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Routine surveillance data on AIDS and HIV infections in the UK: a description of the data available and their use for short-term planning

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

Hilary E. Tillett ,
N. S. Galbraith ,
S. Elizabeth Overton  and
Kholoud Porter
Hilary E. Tillett
Affiliation:
PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ
N. S. Galbraith
Affiliation:
PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ
S. Elizabeth Overton
Affiliation:
PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ
Kholoud Porter
Affiliation:
PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

In the UK surveillance of AIDS and HIV infection is based on routine reporting systems. Whilst attempts are made to ensure that AIDS data are as complete as possible, numbers of reports fluctuate from month to month for reasons which are described. In 1986 there was an increase in death certificates naming AIDS as a cause of death in patients who were not identifiable in the surveillance data. More active surveillance is now undertaken in order to minimize this and other possible discrepancies.

It is probable that most cases of AIDS are reported and therefore these data can be used to describe trends in the epidemic by ‘risk group’. Laboratory reports of HIV antibody-positive tests could give an earlier indication of trends because of the long incubation period of AIDS. But these laboratory data are difficult to interpret because they represent an incomplete and biased sample of all positive persons.

AIDS cases are still being reported at a rate which is increasing approximately exponentially. Short-term predictions are presented showing a growth in the epidemic which is consistent with previously published predictions. Most cases are in the homosexual risk group. New asymptomatic homosexual patients with HIV antibody are still being identified.

The epidemic of AIDS in haemophilia patients should be of finite size although new cases of AIDS are likely to continue to be diagnosed for several years. AIDS due to blood transfusion given in the UK before donor screening appears to be a much smaller epidemic. The epidemic in drug abusers is increasing. Heterosexually acquired AIDS and HIV infections are being reported in small but increasing numbers.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 100 , Issue 1 , February 1988 , pp. 157 - 169
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1988

References

REFERENCES

Anderson, R. M., Medley, G. F., May, R. M. & Johnson, A. M. (1980). A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of HIV, the causative agent of AIDS. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 3, 229–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, N. T. J. (1988). The modelling and prediction of HIV/AIDS. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 151. In press.Google Scholar
Galbraith, N. S., McEvoy, M. & Sibellas, M. (1986). The acquired immune deficiency syndrome – 1985. Community Medicine 8, 329–336.Google ScholarPubMed
Goedert, J.J., Eyster, M. E. & Biggar, R. J. (1987). Heterosexual transmission of HIV: association with severe T4-cell depletion in male haemophiliacs. III International Conference on AIDS, Washington, abstract W.2.6.Google Scholar
Gonzalez, J. J. & Koch, M. G. (1987). The role of transients in the epidemic curve of AIDS. American Journal of Epidemiology. In press.Google Scholar
Healy, M. J. R. & Tillett, H. E. (1988). Short-term extrapolation of the AIDS epidemic. Journal of Royal Statistical Society 151. In press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hessol, N. A., Rutherford, G. W., O'Malley, P. M., Doll, L. S., Darrow, W. W. & Jaffe. H. W. (1987). The natural history of HIV infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men: a 7-year prospective study. III International Conference on AIDS, Washington, abstract M.3.1.Google Scholar
Katzenstein, D. A., Latif, A., Bassett, M. T. & Emmanuel, J. C. (1987). Risks for heterosexual transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe. III International Conference on AIDS, Washington, abstract M.8.3.Google Scholar
Knox, E. G. (1980). A transmission model for AIDS. European Journal of Epidemiology 2. 165–177.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koch, M. G. & Welck, U. (1987). ASSP: AIDS – Spread Simulations and Projections. Munich: Angewandte Computer Software.Google Scholar
Robertson, A. D. J., White, R. A. & Bargmann, R. E. (1988). AIDS epidemiology. Nature. In press.Google Scholar
Robertson, J. R. (1985). Drug users in contact with general practice. British Medical Journal 290, 34–35.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tillett, H. E. & McEvoy, M. (1986). Reassessment of predicted numbers of AIDS cases in the UK. Lancet ii, 1104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Druten, J. A. M. (1986). Aids prediction and intervention. lancet i, 852–853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar