Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-skm99 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T21:33:52.947Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Preventing epidemics in a community of households

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

R. Hall  and
N. G. Becker
R. Hall*
Affiliation:
School of Statistical Science, La Trobe University, Bundoora Vic 3083, Australia
N. G. Becker
Affiliation:
School of Statistical Science, La Trobe University, Bundoora Vic 3083, Australia
*
* Author for correspondence.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The occurrence of epidemics of vaccine-preventable diseases, and the immunization coverage required to prevent them, is affected by the presence of households and heterogeneity in the community. We consider a community where individuals live in households and are of different types, according to infectivity and/or susceptibility to infection. We describe a method for computing the critical immunization coverage to prevent epidemics in such communities and discuss the effectiveness of immunization strategies. In a heterogeneous community where individuals live in households several immunization strategies are possible and we examine strategies targeting households, randomly selected individuals, or groups with highly intense transmission, such as school children. We compare estimates of the critical immunization coverage if we assume that disease is spread solely by random mixing with estimates which result if we assume the effects of the household structure. Estimates made under these two sets of assumptions differ. The results provide insights into the community effects of vaccination, and the household structure of the community should be taken into account when designing immunization policies.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 117 , Issue 3 , December 1996 , pp. 443 - 455
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

References

1.Cutts, FT, Markowitz, LE. Successes and failures in measles control. J Infect Dis 1994; 170 (Suppl 1): S32–41.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
2.Smith, CG. Factors in the transmission of virus infections from animals to man. Scient Basis Med Ann Rev 1964: 125–50.Google ScholarPubMed
3.Becker, NG. The use of mathematical models in determining vaccination policies. Bull Int Statist Inst 1975; 46: 478–90.Google Scholar
4.Dietz, K. Transmission and control of arbovirus diseases. In: Ludwig, D, Cooke, KL, eds. Epidemiology. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 1975: 104–21.Google Scholar
5.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Vaccination and herd immunity to infectious diseases. Nature 1985; 318: 323–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
6.Fine, PEM. Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol Rev 1993; 15: 265–302.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
7.Becker, NG, Dietz, K. The effect of the household distribution on transmission and control of highly infectious diseases. Math Biosci 1995; 127: 207–19.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
8.Becker, NG, Hall, R. Immunization levels for preventing epidemics in a community of households made up of individuals of different types. Math Biosci. In press.Google Scholar
9.Bartoszyński, R. On a certain model of an epidemic. Applicationes Mathematicae 1972; XIII: 139–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
10.Fine, PEM, Clarkson, JA, Miller, E. The efficacy of pertussis vaccines under conditions of household exposure. Int J Epidemiol 1988; 17: 635–42.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
11.Bailey, NTJ. Mathematical theory of infectious diseases. London: Griffin, 1975.Google Scholar
12.Becker, NG. Analysis of infectious disease data. London: Chapman-Hall, 1989.Google Scholar
13.Markowitz, LE, Preblud, SR, Orenstein, WA et al. , Patterns of transmission in measles outbreaks in the United States, 1985–1986. New Engl J Med 1989; 320: 75–81.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
14.Hethcote, HW, van Ark, JW. Epidemiological models for heterogeneous populations: proportionate mixing, parameter estimation, and immunization programs. Math Biosci 1987; 84: 85–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
15.Becker, NG. Estimation of parameters relevant for vaccination strategies. Bull Int Statist Inst 1995; Book 2: 1279–89.Google Scholar
16.Babad, HR, Nokes, DJ, Gay, NJ, Miller, E, Morgan-Capner, P, Anderson, RM. Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales: model validation and analysis of policy options. Epidemiol Infect 1995; 114: 319–44.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
17.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
18.Sattenspiel, L. Epidemics in nonrandomly mixing populations: a simulation. Am J Phys Anthropol 1987; 73: 251–65.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed