1.Jones, KE, et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 2008; 451: 990–994.
2.Chen, HH, Duffy, SW, Tabar, L. A Markov chain method to estimate the tumour progression rate from preclinical to clinical phase, sensitivity and positive predictive value for mammography in breast cancer screening. Statistician 1996; 45: 307–317.
3.Dasbach, EJ, Elbasha, EH, Insinga, RP. Mathematical models for predicting the epidemiologic and economic impact of vaccination against human papillomavirus infection and disease. Epidemiologic Reviews 2006; 28: 88–100.
4.Anderson, RM, Trewhella, W. Population-dynamics of the badger (Meles meles) and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B 1985; 310: 327–381.
5.Shirley, MDF, et al. Investigating the spatial dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations: evaluating an individual-based simulation model. Ecological Modelling 2003; 167: 139–157.
6.Smith, GC, et al. A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles: an evaluation of control strategies. Journal of Applied Ecology 2001; 38: 509–519.
7.Kramer-Schadt, S, et al. Individual variations in infectiousness explain long-term disease persistence in wildlife populations. Oikos 2009; 118: 199–208.
8.Bourne, FJ. Bovine TB: the scientific evidence. Final Report of the Independent Scientific Group on Cattle TB, 2007.
9.Gilbert, M, et al. Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. Nature 2005; 435: 491–496.
10.Donnelly, CA, et al. Positive and negative effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle. Nature 2006; 439: 843–846.
11.Griffin, JM, et al. The impact of badger removal on the control of tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2005; 67: 237–266.
12.Gortazar, C, et al. The status of tuberculosis in European wild mammals. Mammal Review 2012; 42: 193–206.
13.Judge, J, et al. Effectiveness of biosecurity measures in preventing badger visits to farm buildings. PLoS One 2011; 6.
14.Chambers, MA, et al. Bacillus calmette-guerin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 2011; 278: 1913–1920.
15.Bentil, DE, Murray, JD. Modelling bovine tuberculosis in badgers. Journal of Animal Ecology 1993; 62: 239– 250.
16.Smith, GC, et al. Modelling bovine tuberculosis in badgers in England: Preliminary results. Mammalia 1995; 59: 639–650.
17.Smith, GC, McDonald, RA, Wilkinson, D. Comparing badger (Meles meles) management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle. PLoS One 2012; 7.
18.Cheeseman, CL, et al. Badger population dynamics in a high-density area. Symposia of the Zoological Society of London 1987; 58: 279–294.
19.Goodger, J, et al. Serodiagnosis of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers – development of an indirect ELISA using a 25-kDa antigen. Veterinary Record 1994; 135: 82–85.
20.Clifton-Hadley, RS, Wilesmith, JW, Stuart, FA. Mycobacterium bovis in the European badger (Meles meles) – epidemiologic findings in tuberculosis badgers from a naturally infected-population. Epidemiology and Infection 1993; 111: 9–19.
21.Drewe, JA, et al. Diagnostic accuracy and optimal use of three tests for tuberculosis in live badgers. PLoS One 2010; 5.
22.Wilkinson, D, et al. The effects of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) on mortality in a badger (Meles meles) population in England. Journal of Zoology 2000; 250: 389–395.
23.Thorns, CJ, Morris, JA, Little, TWA. A spectrum of immune-responses and pathological conditions between certain animal species to experimental Mycobacterium bovis infection. British Journal of Experimental Pathology 1982; 63: 562–572.
24.Blower, SM, et al. The intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics. Nature Medicine 1995; 1: 815–821.
25.Corner, LAL, Murphy, D, Gormley, E. Mycobacterium bovis infection in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles): the disease, pathogenesis, epidemiology and control. Journal of Comparative Pathology 2011; 144: 1–24.
26.Gallagher, J, et al. Role of infected, non-diseased badgers in the pathogenesis of tuberculosis in the badger. Veterinary Record 1998; 142: 710–714.
27.Delahay, RJ, et al. The spatio-temporal distribution of Mycobacterium bovis (bovine tuberculosis) infection in a high-density badger population. Journal of Animal Ecology 2000; 69: 428–441.
28.Clifton-Hadley, RS, Sayers, AR, Stock, MP. Evaluation of an ELISA for Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers (Meles meles). Veterinary Record 1995; 137: 555–558.
29.Greenwald, R, et al. Improved serodetection of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers (Meles meles) using multiantigen test formats. Diagnostic Microbiology and Infectious Disease 2003; 46: 197–203.
30.Forrester, GJ, Delahay, RJ, Clifton-Hadley, RS. Screening badgers (Meles meles) for Mycobacterium bovis infection by using multiple applications of an ELISA. Veterinary Record 2001; 149: 169–172.
31.White, GC, Burnham, KP. Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study 1999; 46: 120–139.
32.R Development Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. In: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2011.
33.Laake, J. Rmark: R code for mark analysis. In: R package version 2.0.1, 2011.
34.Lebreton, JD, et al. Modeling individual animal histories with multistate capture-recapture models. Advances in ecological research 2009: 41: 87–173.
35.Burnham, KP, Anderson, DR. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, 2002.
36.McCallum, H, Barlow, N, Hone, J. How should pathogen transmission be modelled? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2001; 16: 295–300.
37.Delahay, RJ, et al. Demographic correlates of bite wounding in Eurasian badgers, Meles meles, in stable and perturbed populations. Animal Behaviour 2006; 71: 1047–1055.
38.Cheeseman, CL, et al. Dynamics of tuberculosis in a naturally infected badger population. Mammal Review 1988; 18: 61–72.