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Incorporating calendar effects to predict influenza seasonality in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

  • Ryan B. Simpson (a1), Tania M. Alarcon Falconi (a1), Aishwarya Venkat (a1), Kenneth H. H. Chui (a1), Jose Navidad (a2), Yuri N. Naumov (a3), Jack Gorski (a3), Sanjib Bhattacharyya (a2) and Elena N. Naumova (a1)...

Abstract

Social outings can trigger influenza transmission, especially in children and elderly. In contrast, school closures are associated with reduced influenza incidence in school-aged children. While influenza surveillance modelling studies typically account for holidays and mass gatherings, age-specific effects of school breaks, sporting events and commonly celebrated observances are not fully explored. We examined the impact of school holidays, social events and religious observances for six age groups (all ages, ⩽4, 5–24, 25–44, 45–64, ⩾65 years) on four influenza outcomes (tests, positives, influenza A and influenza B) as reported by the City of Milwaukee Health Department Laboratory, Milwaukee, Wisconsin from 2004 to 2009. We characterised holiday effects by analysing average weekly counts in negative binomial regression models controlling for weather and seasonal incidence fluctuations. We estimated age-specific annual peak timing and compared influenza outcomes before, during and after school breaks. During the 118 university holiday weeks, average weekly tests were lower than in 140 school term weeks (5.93 vs. 11.99 cases/week, P < 0.005). The dampening of tests during Winter Break was evident in all ages and in those 5–24 years (RR = 0.31; 95% CI 0.22–0.41 vs. RR = 0.14; 95% CI 0.09–0.22, respectively). A significant increase in tests was observed during Spring Break in 45–64 years old adults (RR = 2.12; 95% CI 1.14–3.96). Milwaukee Public Schools holiday breaks showed similar amplification and dampening effects. Overall, calendar effects depend on the proximity and alignment of an individual holiday to age-specific and influenza outcome-specific peak timing. Better quantification of individual holiday effects, tailored to specific age groups, should improve influenza prevention measures.

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Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

Author for correspondence: Elena N. Naumova, E-mail: elena.naumova@tufts.edu

References

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Incorporating calendar effects to predict influenza seasonality in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

  • Ryan B. Simpson (a1), Tania M. Alarcon Falconi (a1), Aishwarya Venkat (a1), Kenneth H. H. Chui (a1), Jose Navidad (a2), Yuri N. Naumov (a3), Jack Gorski (a3), Sanjib Bhattacharyya (a2) and Elena N. Naumova (a1)...

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