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Forecasting the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a time series analysis

  • Hongfang Qiu (a1), Dewei Zeng (a2), Jing Yi (a1), Hua Zhu (a1), Ling Hu (a1), Dan Jing (a1) and Mengliang Ye (a1)...

Abstract

Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is a highly contagious eye disease, the prediction of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is very important to prevent and grasp its development trend. We use the exponential smoothing model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to analyse and predict. The monthly incidence data from 2004 to 2017 were used to fit two models, the actual incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in 2018 was used to validate the model. Finally, the prediction effect of exponential smoothing is best, the mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error were 0.0152 and 0.1871, respectively. In addition, the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing had a seasonal trend characteristic, with the peak period from June to September each year.

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Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

Author for correspondence: Mengliang Ye, E-mail: yemengliang@cqmu.edu.cn

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These authors contributed equally to this work.

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References

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Keywords

Forecasting the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a time series analysis

  • Hongfang Qiu (a1), Dewei Zeng (a2), Jing Yi (a1), Hua Zhu (a1), Ling Hu (a1), Dan Jing (a1) and Mengliang Ye (a1)...

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