Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-tj2md Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T21:18:29.767Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The impact of green preferences on the relevance of history versus expectations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 June 2019

Andreas Schaefer
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Bath, BathUnited Kingdom CER-ETH Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Anna Stünzi*
Affiliation:
CER-ETH Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
*

Abstract

In an overlapping generations model with multiple steady states, we analyse the impact of endogenous environmental policies on the relevance of history and expectations for the equilibrium selection. In a polluting regime, environmental preferences cause an increasing energy tax which raises the risk that the economy transitions to the inferior equilibrium under pessimistic expectations. However, higher environmental preferences imply an earlier switch to the clean energy regime. Then, the conflict between production and environmental preferences is resolved and the prospects of selecting the superior equilibrium improve, since positive expectations become more relevant. In an empirical analysis we find that people with environmental preferences tend to have more optimistic expectations about economic development. Using these findings to analyse the steady-state dynamics implies that agents with environmental preferences support higher energy taxes and switch to clean production more quickly. Due to their optimism, the likelihood of reaching the superior stable steady state increases.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abel, AB (1982) Dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment. Journal of Monetary Economics 9, 353373.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, D, Aghion, P, Bursztyn, L and Hemous, D (2012) The environment and directed technical change. American Economic Review 102, 131166.Google Scholar
Bafumi, J (2011) Animal spirits: the effect of economic expectations on economic output. Applied Economics 43, 35733589.Google Scholar
Bretschger, L and Schaefer, A (2017) Dirty history versus clean expectations: can energy policies provide momentum for growth? European Economic Review 99, 170190.Google Scholar
Eurobarometer (2016) Standard eurobarometer 85. Available at https://data.europa.eu/euodp/data/dataset/S2130_85_2_STD85_ENG.Google Scholar
Fankhauser, S, Sehilleier, F and Stern, N (2008) Climate change, innovation and jobs. Climate Policy 8, 421429.Google Scholar
Furnham, A (1997) The half full or half empty glass: the views of the economic optimist vs pessimist. Human Relations 50, 197209.Google Scholar
Gali, J (1994) Monopolistic competition, endogenous markups, and growth. European Economic Review 38, 748756.Google Scholar
Gali, J (1995) Productivity diversity, endogenous markups, and development traps. European Economic Review 36, 3963.Google Scholar
Hamilton, K, Brahmbhatt, M and Liu, J (2017) Multiple benefits from climate change mitigation: assessing the evidence. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.Google Scholar
Hayashi, F (1982) Tobin's marginal q and average q: a neoclassical interpretation. Econometrica 50, 213224.Google Scholar
Krugman, P (1991) History versus expectations. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 651667.Google Scholar
Schaefer, A and Steger, T (2014) Journey into the unknown? Economic consequences of factor market integration under increasing return to scale. Review of International Economics 22, 783807.Google Scholar
Selects (2017) Panel/rolling cross-section study – 2015 [828]. Distributed by FORS, Lausanne, 2016. Available at www.selects.ch.Google Scholar
Stern, N (2006) Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. London: HM Treasury.Google Scholar
Stokes, B (2017) Global publics more upbeat about the economy. Pew Research Center. Available at https://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/05/global-publics-more-upbeat-about-the-economy/.Google Scholar
Trimborn, T, Koch, K and Steger, T (2008) Multidimensional transitional dynamics: a simple numerical procedure. Macroeconomic Dynamics 12, 301319.Google Scholar
Van der Mejden, G and Smulders, S (2016) Carbon lock-in: the role of expectations. International Economic Review 58, 13711415.Google Scholar
Vimentis (2018) Volksmeinung 2018. Available at https://www.vimentis.ch/umfrage/17_lang_d.pdf.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Schaefer and Stünzi supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Schaefer and Stünzi supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1.3 MB