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Trends in Crop Production, 1978–86

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

Kenneth R. Walker
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Extract

The economic and institutional framework against which trends in crop production under the government of Deng Xiaoping must be considered, is vastly different from that which existed throughout the Mao era. In a word, Deng replaced a system of planned production and supply by one in which market demand became the main determinant of the level and structure of agricultural production. Under Mao Zedong, maximizing the physical output of key agricultural products was the basis of agricultural policy. Centrally identified priorities – based on “national need” – were reflected in targets for the output, sown area and yield per hectare of individual items. These mandatory targets were to be fulfilled by the collective farms (the production teams of the communes) which were the basic organizational units of Chinese agriculture. Similarly, the disposal of farm output was determined by the central plan. For production teams, therefore, decision-making was relatively simple and followed the sequence of production, harvesting and procurement, all according to plans laid down by the government. Cost accounting was rudimentary. It was not, in any case, geared to the promotion of “economic efficiency.” If production costs rose-for example, as a result of an increase in the multiple cropping index directed by the government – the peasants bore the burden, as they were the residual claimants in the distribution of income by the production teams.

Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 116 , December 1988 , pp. 592 - 633
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1988

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References

1. The Chinese authorities accept that official figures for the total arable area of China understate its true amount but maintain that the degree of accuracy varies from province to province. Since there is no overwhelming reason to assume that the overall extent of inaccuracy has changed significantly during the last 30 years, the trends are not affected by this problem.

For an interesting Chinese discussion of this issue see Ministry of Agriculture Land Utilization Bureau, “Wo guo tudi wenti di qingkuang he jinhou di yijian” (“Views on the state of China's land problems and the future”), Nongyejingji congcan (Agricultural Economic Abstract), No. 1 (1981), pp. 44–47Google Scholar, in People's University Reprints F2, “Nongyejingji” (“Agricultural economics”), No. 6 (1981), pp. 6–15.Google Scholar

2. See especially year 2000 research team, Gongyuan 2000 nian di zhongguo (China in the Year 2000) (Beijing: Kexue jishu wenxian chubanshe, 1984), pp. 49–61.Google ScholarBing, Shi, “Guanyu nongye xuyao zengjia touru wenti di tantao” (“Discussion on the need for more agricultural inputs”), Nongye jingji wenti {Agricultural Economic Problems), No. 1 (1987), pp. 6–9.Google ScholarXunhao, Liu, “Lun wo guo liangshi wenti di chulu” (“Discussion of a solution to China's grain problem”), Nongye jingji wenti, No. 8 (1987), pp. 3–7.Google Scholar

3. Xunhao, Liu, “Lun woguo gengzuo zhidu di fazhan fangxiang” (“On the developing direction of China's cropping system”), Nongye jishu jingji (Agricultural Technology Economics), No. 8 (1983), pp. 4–7.Google Scholar

4. Calculated from figures in “Shi lun woguo gengdi shengchanli zhishu” (“An attempt at a productivity index for China's arable land”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 9 (1986), pp. 1–5.Google Scholar

5. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Grain and Economic Crop Development Research Team, “Wo guo liangshi ho jingji zuowu fazhan di yanjiu” (“Research into the development of China's grain and economic crops”), in State Council Rural Development Research Centre and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Agricultural Economics Research Institute, joint authors, Zhongguo nongcun fazhan zhanlue wenti (Problems in China's Rural Development Strategy) (hereafter CAAS 1985) (Beijing: Zhongguo nongye keji chubanshe, 1985), pp. 377–456.Google Scholar

6. Regional targets for the year 2000 are in CAAS 1985, pp. 377–456.Google Scholar

7. Unpublished surveys analysed by CASS (1986) reveal a concentration of such households in the following eight provinces: Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Ningxia and Guangxi. In these provinces alone, 70 million people were estimated to have incomes below 120 yuan and grain rations of under 200 kilograms per head.

8. For good analyses, see Wen, Lu, “Tiaozheng nongcun chanye jiegou shi dangxian fazhan nongcun shangpin jingji di zhuyao huanjie” (“The adjustment of the rural production structure is the key link at present in developing the rural market economy”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 1 (1985), pp. 1–6Google Scholar; Deming, Dai, “Woguo liangshi shengchan ying zou ‘wen liang zeng zhi’ di daolu” (“China's grain production should follow the path of ‘stable grain growth of grain production and value’”), Nongye jingji wenti, No. 10 (1985), pp. 31–33.Google Scholar

9. Ibid.

10. Details of the situation in Jilin are given in Economic Research Institute of Jilin Province Planning Commission, “Ba Jilin sheng di yumi youshi zhuanhua wei jingji youshi” (“Make the dominance of maize in Jilin province into an economic dominance”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 2 (1985), pp. 10–14.Google Scholar

11. Explorations of the nature of the downturn in 1985 and its possible long-run implications, are to be found in Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Grain and Economic Crop Team, “1986 nian woguo nongye shengchan qushi fenxi” (“An analysis of the trends in China's agricultural production during 1986”), Nongye jishujingji, No. 3 (1986), pp. 9–11Google Scholar; and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, “Woguo ren jun 400 gongjin liangshi bi buke shao” (“Four hundred kilograms of grain per head in China are essential”). Nongye jishu jingji, No. 8 (1986), pp. 12–13.Google Scholar

12. Zhengxin, Shi, “Lun gaishan nongcun liutong jiegou yu liutong jizhi” (“On improving the rural marketing structure and mechanism”), Nongye jingji wenti, No. 2 (1987), pp. 11–14Google Scholar; Liu Xunhao, “Discussion of a solution to China's grain problem.” For an interesting analysis of the grain fluctuations in the North-east: Heilongjiang and Jilin Survey Team of the State Council Rural Development Research Centre, “Jilin, Heilongjiang liangshi shengchan fazhan wenti di chubu diaocha” (“Preliminary survey of grain production development problems in Jilin and Heilongjiang”), Nongye jingji wenti, No. 8 (1987), pp 7–13.Google Scholar The article points out that, as of summer 1987, peasants and cadres in these two important grain-producing provinces were, once again, facing difficulties in selling grain.

13. However, the sown area of economic crops in 1982 was said to have greatly exceeded the government “plan for adjustment”: Xiji, An, “Lun woguo nongchanpin jiage tizhi gaige yu jiage zhengce tiaozheng” (“On the reform of the price system for agricultural products in China and adjustment of price policy”), Nongye jingji wenti, No. 10 (1985), pp. 23–28.Google Scholar

14. Consumption data from ZGTJNJ 1986, p. 687.Google Scholar

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17. Zhongyi, Liu (ed.), Seventh Five-Year Plans, p. 94.Google Scholar

18. Gongye guanli congkan, No. 8 (1984), pp. 37–47.Google Scholar

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20. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Geography Research Institute, Zhongguo nongye shengchan buju (The Distribution of Agricultural Production in China) (Beijing: Nongye chubanshe, 1983), p. 126.Google Scholar

21. See an excellent chapter by Hu Deheng and Liu Yaochuan (State Planning Commission), “Guanyu nongcun jingji fazhan di qige wunian jihua di shuoming” (“Explanation of rural economic development during the Seventh Five-Year Plan”), in Zhongyi, Liu (ed.), Seventh Five-Year Plans, pp. 37–49.Google Scholar

22. Zhongyi, Liu (ed.), Seventh Five-Year Plans, pp. 69 and 84.Google Scholar

23. Xinhua report, 1 December 1987; also Reuter's report, 1 December 1987.

24. Zhongyi, Liu (ed.), Seventh Five-Year Plans, p. 93.Google Scholar

25. Nongmin ribao, 28 05 1987, p. 2.Google Scholar

26. Ibid.

27. Jiazhang, Ma, “Fazhan wuoguo mianhua shengchan di zhanlue shexiang” (“A development strategy envisaged for China's cotton production”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 4(1987), pp. 26–28.Google Scholar

28. CASS.

29. Yuanjun, Tian, “Ba Xinjiang jiancheng woguo youzhi mianhua shangpin shengchan jidi” (“Make Xinjiang into one of China's high-quality cotton-producing marketing bases”), Nongye jishu jingi, No. 10 (1985), pp. 54–57.Google Scholar

30. Yingbi, Duan, “Jiachiang mianhua gongqiu di hongguan tiaojie” (“Strengthen the broad adjustment between the supply of and demand for cotton”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 9 (1985), pp. 30–33.Google Scholar

31. Hong Wujin and others, “Woguo mianhua di gongqiu maodun he duice” (“Contradictions in the supply of and demand for cotton in China, and how to deal with them”), Nongye jingji wenti, No. 10 (1985), pp. 49–53.Google Scholar

32. Nongmin ribao, 9 02 1987.Google Scholar

33. Ma Jiazhang, “A development strategy.”

34. Nongmin ribao, 13 08 1987.Google Scholar

35. Ibid. 6 February 1987.

36. Jiazhang, Ma, “A development strategy”Google Scholar; also Nongmin ribao, 10 03 1987.Google Scholar

37. CASS 1985, pp. 377–456Google Scholar; Jiazhang, Ma, “A development strategy.”Google Scholar

38. Although this decline in investment began in the early 1980s, and was associated with agricultural decollectivization, it accelerated alarmingly during 1985. Among the many interesting analyses of the problem, see CAAS 1985; Shi Bing, “Need for more agricultural inputs”; Ziyang, He, “Nongye touzi yu jingji fazhan di guanxi” (“The relationship between agricultural investment and economic development”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 9 (1986), pp. 35–38Google Scholar; Wen, Lu, “Yao zengjia nongye di wuzhi touru” (“We must increase material investment in agriculture”), Nongye jishu jingji, No. 3 (1986), pp. 1–15.Google Scholar

39. CAAS 1985.

40. Specifically, given the chaotic state of agricultural prices, to what extent will it be possible to avoid a return to a system in which agricultural land is allocated between alternative uses by direct controls? Some authors do not rule out administrative methods. For example, Ma Jiazhang, “A development strategy”; Liu Zhongyi, “Gaijin nongcun jingji jihua gongzuo, quanmian wancheng ‘qinian’ nongcun jingji fazhan jihua” (“Reform the work of rural economic planning, comprehensively fulfil the ‘Seventh Plan’ rural economic development plans”), in Zhongyi, Liu (ed.), Seventh Five-Year Plans, pp. 26–36.Google Scholar Internal discussions of the problem refer to the need to strengthen “land management” and to the impending establishment of a central land management organ for China. This will draw up a comprehensive national plan for land use, stipulate norms for land use and levy land taxes.